Zark's

Expect Rising Food Prices

Wheat harvest on the Palouse Image Credit: USDA

Mmm.  You would not expect a title such as "Food Prices Expected to Decline", would you?  Why is that?  Sorry - I digress.

World Food Prices at Fresh High Says UN explains that wildfires in Russia have decreased the global food supply by 11 percent, and the floods in Australia will likely reduce food exports by 11 percent.  The BBC article further explains that food prices in general have increased 80 percent in the past ten years.

Urgent Action Needed to Avert Global Hunger tells that India and most of Africa suffer from alarming to extremely alarming hunger.  925 million suffer from hunger, while another 1 billion have inadequate nutrition.  An independent UK study shows this problem will worsen because of a rapidly rising population and an increase in urbanization.  In 20 years, 70 percent of the worlds' population will live in cities.  40 percent more food and 30 percent more fresh water will be needed in the next 20 years.

Wading Through the Fog of War

An UH-1B[D] helicopter prepares for a resupply mission for Co B, 1st Bn, 8th Inf, 4th Inf Div, during the operation conducted 20 miles southwest of Dak To. 10-16 December 1967 Image Credit: U.S. Army

The Fog of War, a documentary by Errol Morris gives 11 lessons from the life of Robert S. McNamara.  He was a controversial Secretary of Defense, first for JFK, and then later for LBJ.  McNamara gave up his presidency at Ford Motor Company to serve as SECDEF for seven years.  He quit/was fired prior to the conclusion of the Vietnam War and is generally associated with the tangled knot that ensnared the U.S. in Southeast Asia.

The executive summary of McNamara's wisdom is:

1. Empathize with your enemies.
2. Rationality will not save us.
3. There's something beyond one's self.
4. Maximize efficiency.
5. Proportionality should be a guideline in war.
6. Get the data.
7. Belief and seeing are both often wrong.
8. Be prepared to reexamine your reasoning.
9. In order to do good, you may have to engage in evil.
10. Never say never.
11. You can't change human nature.

Mmm.  The title, The Fog of War, McNamara explains, is that war is so complex that it is impossible to see and know everything.  The questions and conclusions that come from watching The Fog of War are also complex.  I encourage you to watch and ponder its lessons.  McNamara was one of the country's brightest; he sacrificed much in the service of his country, and greatly influenced world history.

The American Soldier, 1965 Photo Credit: U.S. Army Center of Military History

Freedom is costly.  What we have today could not be enjoyed without the ultimate sacrifices of so many brave men and women.  Today, on Memorial Day, we are grateful.

The Achilles' Heel of Electric Cars

GM Fires Up its Chevrolet Volt Battery Factory explains that General Motors began producing the 16 KW lithium-ion battery packs in quantity today.  Over 200 individual battery cells are connected in the 400 pound battery pack.  Just as GM will not announce the price of the Volt, they will also not disclose the cost of the battery pack.  The Wired article estimates somewhere between $8,000 and $16,000 for the battery pack.

Something that has probably bothered most people who have had to replace a laptop computer battery - lithium-ion batteries wear out after a couple of years. How are car manufacturers going to avoid similar lifetimes? Can Smart Tech Keep Chevy Volt's Battery Running Longer Than Your Laptop's explains that the plan is to onl charge the battery to 80% capacity and to disable the battery when it drops to 30% capacity. By severely limiting the charge/discharge depth, electric car vendors hope to achieve a ten-year lifetime.  That is the theory.  Also, such limited battery usage means the car is carrying dead weight, roughly 50%.

The concept for the Volt is to provide roughly 40 miles of driving range from battery alone.  After that, a gas-powered pony motor is started to recharge the battery.  With a standard 120 volt power, the Volt can be recharged in about 8 hours.  It only takes 3 hours with 240 volt power.

The Department of Energy is is promoting electric vehicles because it is perhaps the fastest transition from petroleum-based transportation to alternative energy.  That alternative energy can be solar, wind, natural gas, nuclear, coal, etc., if static power generation is used to recharge batteries.  The problem is - batteries have much lower energy density than petroleum and the lifetime and reliability is unknown.  Sheeh.  There is no good solution.  The Department of Energy continues to issue grants and sponsor new battery technology.  I hope we get there.