Zark's

Haven't the Foggiest

So what will 2012 bring?  On the specifics, I haven't the foggiest idea.  I do hope that we can pull ourselves out of an asymmetrical economy.  (The 1 percent keeps doing better at the expense of the 99 percent.)  I'm fearful we have slipped into a lost decade like Japan. 

With expectations high, perhaps this will be the year that we discover cold fusion.  Perhaps as important to many of us, perhaps we will discover the perfect weight-reducing pill.  A Fountain of Youth pill, would be nice as well.

Could this be the year we make contact with extraterrestrial life?  How would that change things? 

Ready or not, here comes 2012.  May it be a good one for you!

 

Freezing Temperatures Shut Down Natural Gas Production

Natural Gas Drilling Rig
Image Credit: Jessica K Robertson, USGS

Report on Outages and Curtailments During the Southwest Cold Weather Event of February 1-5, 2011 was released by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

As background, there has been a shift in natural gas production from offshore wells in the Gulf of Mexico into the interior.  Energy suppliers and consumers were accustomed to outages during late summer and autumn because of hurricanes, but now they must watch for freeze-offs during winter. 

In the cold snap last winter, freeze-offs were responsible for reducing the nation's natural gas production by over 7 billion cubic feet of gas a day.  This is equivalent to hurricanes like Katrina or Lee.  As you can guess, natural gas disruptions in winter are much more serious than summer.

A “freeze-off,” occurs when water produced alongside the natural gas crystallizes or freezes, completely blocking off the flow and shutting down the well. The report tells, "Freeze-offs routinely occur in very cold weather, and affected at least some of these basins in all of the six recent cold weather events in the Southwest with the possible exception of 1983, for which adequate records are not available.  During the February event, icy roads prevented maintenance personnel and equipment from reaching the wells and hauling off produced water which, if left in holding tanks at the wellhead, causes the wells to shut down automatically."

Mmm.  You are probably trying to remember.  How cold was it? The arctic cold front hit the central and northeastern United States and southern Canada on February 1, 2011, and lasted for several days. Temperatures dropped 40 degrees in parts of Texas. Highs for almost a week were 30 degrees below their normal averages. The arctic front reached down across the nation to the Gulf. Sustained winds were 20 to 25 mph. 

Brrr.  Here's hoping we don't repeat it.

 

Wind Farm Wins Legal Appeal

Commercial Windmill
Image Credit: USGS

Wikipedia explains the Cape Wind Project is a planned offshore wind farm in Nantucket Sound, off Cape Cod in Massachusetts.  Although many Nantuckers (is that right?) oppose the project because they don't want 400 foot eyesores in the water, the largest legal opposition was cost.

The Massachusetts department of public utilities approved a 15 year agreement between the developer and the public utility, deciding that the benefits justified the costs.  An opposition group sued, arguing there should have been open competition and the cost to consumers was too high.  The utility will pay 18.7 cents per kw-h for the first year and the price increases 3.5 percent annually for 15 years.  It also agreed to purchase one-half of the wind farm's output.  The opposition group calculated this deal would cost between $420M and $695M above market prices.

SJC upholds Cape Wind energy deal tells that the state supreme court upheld the state's decision, stating that the project was in the public interest. The opposition still claims victory stating that the FAA has refused approval, the developer was also refused a federal loan, and has been unable to find a buyer for the other 50 percent of the electrical power produced.

The Cape Wind website tells that the 130 wind turbines will save 113 million gallons of oil per year.  (Not too many utilities burn oil to produce electricity.)  The towers will be spaced six to nine football fields apart, minimizing disruption to the Nantucket Sound community. It would be the nation's first offshore wind farm.

 

Why Do We Want to Create a Drug Problem Greater Than Oxycodone?

Brain regions and neuronal pathways
Image Credit: National Institute of Drug Addiction

The orange pathway on the left is activated when a person receives positive reinforcement for certain behaviors.  It is also activated with an addictive drug such as an opioid.

There are opiate receptors in the brain which react to drugs such as Oxycodone.  They send a signal to the dopamine terminal to release more dopamine.  Tolerance develops such that the receptors do not react as strongly to drugs.  Dependence develops when receptors no longer function normally and require drugs to function. 

The FDA tells that it approved OxyContin as a prescription narcotic pain reliever in 1995.  The active ingredient is oxycondone, a derivative of opium.  The prescription drug is formulated to slowly release oxycodone, but because it can produce euphoria, people attempt to intensify the sensation.  Euphoria is the primary reason why opioids are abused.

Hydrocone painkillers 10 times stronger than Vicodin are being readied by drug companies scares me.  Vicodin contains hydrocondone, like Oxycontin, but also contains an acetominophen.  The NewYork Daily News article tells that four companies have begun patient testing.  Zogenix, Perdue Pharma, Cephalon, and Egalet are all developing versions of a super pain killer. 

America's Largest Painkiller Advocacy Group is Almost Entirely Funded by Drug Companies tells that OxyContin achieved $3.1B in sales last year, a substantial portion of the $8.5B of narcotic painkillers sold in in the U.S.  The Business Insider quotes the head of CDC declaring overdoses from opioid drugs an "epidemic".  CDC data shows poisoning deaths now exceed motor vehicle traffic deaths and 90 percent of poisoning deaths are caused by drugs and 40 percent of those in 2008 were opioid analgesics. 

Mmm.  There is likely someone within a couple of degrees of you (people-you-know-who-knows-another) that has a prescription drug problem.  Most of us have sufficient will and self-control to avoid an addiction.  Unfortunately, too many of us view addiction as self-inflicted, and not deserving attention or compassion.  I know at least one person who developed a serious addiction after a vehicle accident.  Others have been innocently hooked.  It wrecks families, not just individuals, and they too, need compassion and assistance.  Painkiller addiction is a disease our civilization needs to confront.  I am disturbed about this super pain killer.  I'm not sure of the benefit to our culture.

 

Brazil Overtakes Britain in Economic Size

South America
Image Credit: CIA World Factbook

The CIA World Factbook tells that Brazil's economy is diverse with exports of agriculture, mining, energy, manufacturing, and services.  For much of history a debtor nation, Brazil climbed out in 2008 on the strength of energy exports. Its future is bright with large petroleum deposits discovered off its coasts, albeit at depths that will require new technology to recover.  It also exports large quantities of ethanol obtained from genetically-engineered sugar cane.

Government and industry work in collaboration, similar to Germany, which also has exhibited economic strength during the global recession.  Despite what government minimalists would prescribe, the Brazil government invests in big science such as classifying the genome of chocolate or sugar cane and genetic development of improved species. 

But there is a seamy side of Brazil - the ghettos of the large cities are lawless and desperate.  It has an annual inflation rate of over 5 percent.

Brazilian economy overtakes UK's, says CEBR explains that western economies are losing global importance as emerging nations expand.  Brazil is the new number six with Russia and India expected to depose France and Germany's rankings by 2020. 

CEBR World Economic League Table
Rank	2011	2020 (forecast)
1	US	US
2	China	China
3	Japan	Japan
4	Germany	Russia
5	France	India
6	Brazil	Brazil
7	UK	Germany
8	Italy	UK
9	Russia	France
10	India	Italy

The global economic future predicted above from the BBC explains why Germany and France are such fierce advocates for the European Union.  Together, the EU is relevant.  As independent nations, they become irrelevant and lose complete control of their destiny. 

Mmm.  We used to believe the future would be one of boutiques, very different from today where everything seems to be dominated by two primary suppliers.  Instead of many small businesses, we have monopolies and at best duopolies.  I believe that is because of the tremendous pressure for efficiencies and economy of scale.  (Today's buzzword in business is scalability.)  Otherwise the world cannot support its current population.

 

Advances in Hydrogen Fuel Cells

Tesla Model S
Image Credit: Tesla Motors

Perhaps it is the engineer in me, but I have always been fascinated by electric automobiles.  The 2012 Tesla Model S described in Car and Driver Magazine tells the new electric has a base price of $57,400.  This base price only provides a 40 kW battery.  That will speed you along at 55 mph for 160 miles, but if you opt up for the 80 kW battery, for an extra $20K, that will give you a 300 mile driving range. 

As much as I like electric cars, I am troubled by the energy density of batteries.  You have to lug around too much weight even as the battery discharges.  For example, the 56 kW battery weighs 900 pounds.  Then there is the limited lifetime of batteries.

Perhaps because of my early interest in the nation's space program, I have likewise been enthusiastic about hydrogen fuel cells.  They seem a match for transportation.  The Department of Energy has de-emphasized hydrogen because of production and distribution issues, but keeps investing in the technology.  The 2011 Annual Progress Report details some of the advances in the technology. The big-picture metric is the cost of an 80 KW automotive fuel cell system, similar to the power provided by the Tesla battery packs. In 2002, the estimated cost was $275 per KW.  In 2008, it was $73 per KW.  This year, the cost was down to $49 per KW. 

The DOE has a goal of $30 per kW by 2017.  It believes the hydrogen fuel cell will be cost competitive with conventional gas/electric hybrids by 2020.  The prices assume 500,000 production units a year, which is considerably higher production than either the Volt or the Tesla are experiencing, so the hydrogen fuel cell technology is still more expensive than conentional technology.  But things are improving and the DOE continues to invest, not only in the power plant, but also in hydrogen production capability and distribution.

 

Christmas 2011

Christmas is here!  I wish everyone a merry, happy, Christmas!

Mmm.  I cannot resist.  Yes, after breakfast, we plan to walk on the beach.  It is a beautiful morning in southern Florida. 

Wherever you are, have a merry Christmas!  Even if it is not a white Christmas!

Wishing You a Merry Christmas!

A toy soldier and a child stand in front of a Christmas tree.
Photo Credit: Ellen Hudson, USAG Redstone

I wish all of my readers a very merry Christmas!  The world has challenges - there are far too many people suffering for us to become complacent about helping others. 

But you know, a lot of good things happened in 2011.  We had a mild, or non-existent hurricane season, despite New Yorkers getting to experience a tropical storm.  Our troops came home from Iraq, which is something to cheer long and loud about. 

Although I'm a bit skeptical of the data, economic indicators are showing positive.  We should not stop until everyone that wants a job has a job.  But it is better than where we have been.

I wish you joy this Christmas.  Happiness is temporary, and in a pinch, will suffice, but it is not a sustaining emotion.  Joy, on the other hand, doesn't require more and more material possessions or more and more power or praise.  And joy doesn't exhibit a side-effect of happiness - selfishness or greed.  Don't settle for happiness, but reach for joy.

Merry Christmas!

The Mystery of Stonehenge

Pre-dawn ceremonies carried out at the summer solstice by modern 'druids'
Image Credit: Copyright - Clive Ruggles  (Check out his website for some interesting pictures, including Easter Island.)

Stonehenge marks winter solstice tells that over 1000 people gathered at Stonehenge to watch the sunrise.  Mmm. The Druids remarked that it was a good omen the sun decided to rise.

Wikipedia tells that the winter solstice occurs when the axis of the earth is farthest from the Sun.  Because our calendar has most years of 365 days interrupted frequently by a year with an extra day, the date of the winter solstice varies between December 21 and 23.  (The actual formula for leap year is a little more complicated than every 4th year.  Years evenly divisible by 100 are not leap years unless they are divisible by 400.)  While it is true the winter solstice occurs on the shortest day of the year, it does not correspond to the date of the latest sunrise of the year.

National Geographic tells that Stonehenge Stones Were Moved 160 Miles.  The volcanic bluestones in the center of Stonehenge match a stone outcrop in Wales.  But although the rocks match underneath a microscope, researchers have not discovered an ancient quarry where humans could have dug and then transported them.

Okay, if it was not humans, then who?  It may be instead, a what - an ancient glacier might have moved the rocks closer to Stonehenge and later, humans finished the job.  Mmm.  Maybe it would be a better story if the glacier was responsible for arranging them in that peculiar circle.

 

 

Plenty of Coal for Santa

World Coal Consumption by Region
Image Credit: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Perhaps your parents told you the same story as well, 'Santa only leaves naughty children a lump of coal.' 

The graphic on the left illustrates a problem - how to transition the world away from fossil fuels.  The dilemma is - capitalism drives nations and international corporations to use the cheapest energy available.  And it is hard to beat coal for on-demand energy.  But that is one perspective - instead of shunning coal, should we discover a way to utilize it without damaging our future?

The lower graphic shows that the U.S. has plenty of coal.  In fact, at the current consumption rate, the U.S. has over 249 years of reserves.  Surprisingly, the U.S. has more coal than any other nation.  It has over 27 percent of the world's reserves.

Mmm.  It seems like we should be investing in technology to use this valuable energy resource.  Carbon sequestration, as you recall, is the collection of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel plants and somehow removing it from access to the atmosphere.

One strategy is to simply collect the CO2 and pump the gas into underground caverns.  A strategy I like better is to chemically combine the CO2 with a substance to basically form an inert brick.  But for either, the technology is far from being useful on a national scale. 

Everytime I look at coal, I become convinced we have to find a way to make it work.