Zark's

Is New Atomic Theory Needed?

ARTIST'S RENDERING OF METHANE MOLECULES FLOWING THROUGH A CARBON NANOTUB
Image Credit: Department of Energy

Wikipedia explains that superstring theory is an attempt to explain everything by modeling matter and forces as vibrations of infinitesimal strings.  The strings vibrate at different frequencies and in harmonics with each other.  For example, the graviton, which is responsible for gravity, is produced by a single string.  This theory requires a minimum of ten different strings or dimensions to explain all the forces of nature, matter, and space-time.

Why is it that I want to type silly string instead of superstring?  But I digress.  LHC experiments put supersymmetric theory on the spot explains that researchers at the Large Hadron Collider are not observing what superstring theory predicts.  Specifically, B-mesons are not decaying as fast as they should.  Also, two other experiments at the collider have failed to detect supersymmetric particles, prompting the BBC article to say, supersymmetry has 'bit the dust'.

This declaration is discouraging physicists who have come to believe the theory is beautiful and explains everything. 

But the beauty of science is that you propose a theory and then begin to either prove or disprove it.  If your theory is incorrect, then you get to invent a new theory - sort of like perpetual job creation.  Seriously though, the older physicists are discouraged the theory they have come to love isn't working out, while younger physicists are excited at the opportunity to invent the true explanation of how everything works.

Is it Possible to Reset U.S. Manufacturing?

Kindle DX

Especially since Steve Jobs announced his resignation, industry watchers have turned up the hype surrounding Amazon's tablet, if indeed there will be one.  (By the way, my prayers go out to Steve Jobs and wish him the very best.) 

Some speculation believes the new Kindle will include a stylus for convenient note taking, which suggests consumers recognize the limitations of virtual keyboards on touchscreens.  Also based upon HP's firesale success in unloading their now defunct tablet at $99, Amazon should also know where the sweet spot for market share resides.

But today's best tech story concerning the next Kindle is Forbes' Why Amazon Can't Make a Kindle in the USA.  It applies to western manufacturing in general, not just the USA.  France, UK, and other European nations with the single exception of Germany have the same problem.

Whenever you find yourself in a dilemma, it is instructive to understand how you got there.  The USA is in a manufacturing vacuum because accounting numbers indicated profits were larger and risk minimized if manufacturing was performed offshore.  Eventually the entire supply chain for producing a product migrated to Asia.  If you wanted to manufacture a Kindle in the USA, you would essentially have to import all the parts from Asia to merely assemble the product here. 

The original rationalization was that the USA would keep the design talent in country and the poorer nations of the world would endure the pollution and dirty work of manufacturing.  (I remember an economics professor droning about this in an advanced economics course.)  Engineers intuitively know that you cannot separate manufacturing from design engineering.  Before long, the manufacturing engineers know how to design a product better than the original design engineers.

So what is my prescription?  Mmm.  The first is national will.  The nation must decide that manufacturing is noble and productive employment for our citizens.  I forget who penned it, but when you are in a trade war, you treat it as a war, and fight to win.  We cannot permit Asian countries to use the global economy as a jobs program for their nations.  Global trade must benefit citizens of all nations.  Else, you discover more collaborative trading partners.  This is a role for government.  Don't believe multinational corporations will voluntarily change their behavior.

The second is bring down the cost of energy.  Energy is the coin of the future.  The U.S. economy tanks every time energy prices spike.  That must change.

This is not doom and gloom.  You've been in games when you got behind in the score, and then regrouped to win.  It takes will.

The Space Shuttle is Already Missed

The International Space Station (ISS) is backdropped over Miami, Florida. Image Credit: NASA

In case you were on a long cruise this summer, NASA has turned its space shuttle fleet into museum pieces.  The next U.S. manned space mission is at least 5 years away.  Members of Congress are concerned the only ticket to the International Space Station (ISS) is aboard a Russian space capsule.  But their fretting has not resulted in additional funding for the space agency.  (Congress - how about including NASA in a jobs program?  It worked once.)

Amidst the focus on Hurricane Irene, the loss of a Russian supply rocket to the ISS was only lightly reported in the media.  Cargo Craft Loss Prompts ISS Concerns explains the Russian rocket failed to reach orbit, bringing 5900 pounds of supplies to the space station.  (This was the second consecutive failure of a Russian rocket.)  The Aviation Week article tells that the last mission of the Space Shuttle delivered sufficient supplies to sustain personnel through 2012.  The hope was that commercial space vehicles would be ready within a year to begin delivering supplies.

However, SpaceFlight Now writes that the Space Station Could Be Abandoned in November.  The concern is not consumables, but the safety of landing the Russian Soyuz capsules beginning in November.  Because of the Russian rocket failure, the next crew replacement mission is likely to be delayed.  If Russia cannot launch a Soyuz to NASA's satisfaction by November, then NASA may decide to destaff the space station.  Recovery of a Soyuz capsule landing in Siberia during winter is not desired.

Curiously, adding to the intrigue, the Soyuz capsule currently docked to the station for an emergency landing will exceed its design life in October. 

Should We Have More Government?

Mount Rushmore
Image Credit: National Park Service

Something has been bothering me about the shrinking voice and influence of the individual.  We have choices, but we really don't have choices.

As an example, when you purchase a laptop computer, do you have a choice on whether it uses an inexpensive, universal battery?  You don't - you are committed to a manufacturer-unique battery.  How about a new auto?  Do you get to specify the windshield wiper blades?  (Tried finding wiper blades lately?)  Even better, do you have the choice of a vehicle with a bumper so that a 5 mph incident doesn't result in a $4500 repair bill?  Then my favorite - do you get to choose an iPod, iPad, etc, with a replaceable battery?  Why is it that we have this environment of non-standardization?  It is not in the best interest of the nation.

Remember the railroad monopoly history of the early 19th century?  What infuriated farmers and small businesses was the railroads cozied up to their biggest customers and gave them favored rates.  As a result, the Interstate Commerce Commission was established to guarantee 'fair' rates.  By 19th century standards, today's business world is nothing but monopolies.  Thinking of creating a retail store that would compete with Walmart in a small town?  Good luck - Walmart will sell the product cheaper than you can purchase it wholesale.  Yet in a previous era, Walmart would have been prohibited from muscling out competition.

Then there is the Bank of America.  It became too big to fail by purchasing all the small banks instead of growing by offering superior services.  Chances are good on your street there is an unkept property foreclosed by Bank of America.  They exerted their right of foreclosure but slow to assume their responsibility.

So is the Tea Party correct, that the problem with America is too much government?  Or is is, I dare suggest, that we don't have enough government?

 

Blofield's Delight

The sharp vision of Hubble's Advanced Camera for Surveys uncovered the speedy white dwarfs in the ancient globular star cluster NGC 6397, a dense swarm of hundreds of thousands of stars.
Image Credit: NASA

If you remember, in Diamonds are Forever, James Bond pursued international criminal Ernst Blofeld who was attempting to obtain diamonds for a satellite.  This satellite used the diamonds for space-based laser that can destroy nuclear weapons.  Being a capitalist, he proposes an international auction to determine which nation's nuclear weapons are left intact.  The film was a bit campy, but entertaining and had a terrific theme song, Diamonds Are Forever, of course, and sung by Shirley Bassey.

Parkes Radio Telescope
Image Credit: CSIRO Australia

Continuing our film theme, you probably remember the radio telescope picture on the left.  It is the Parkes Radio Observatory, the location for the film, The Dish, which retells the story of Apollo 11 and how the live pictures from the moon were received by the versatile facility on the left.  It is one of my favorite films.

Diamond Planet Spotted Far, Far, Away tells that astronomers have discovered a white dwarf star that has turned to diamond.  It was detected by the Parkes Radio Observatory.  Mmm.  Perhaps this storyline can entice Sean Connery to make one more James Bond film.

 

Major Breakthrough Against Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria

Under a very high magnification of 50,000x, this scanning electron micrograph (SEM) shows a strain of Staphylococcus aureus bacteria taken from a vancomycin intermediate resistant culture (VISA).
Image Credit: CDC/ Matthew J. Arduino, DRPH

Vancomycin is reserved as the drug of 'last resort' in fighting infection.  It has generally been effective against many bacteria tht are methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA).  Wikipedia tells the drug was discovered inside the jungles of Borneo in 1953.  Its name comes from its effect upon bacteria - vanquish.  One of the reasons it is used as a last resort is because it almost always has to be administered intraveniously because of poor oral viability.  (It is a large molecule that does not cross through the intestinal lining.)  An oral version is sold however, that is not absorbed by the blood, but remains in the intestinal tract. 

Eli Lilly's patent expired in the early 80s and generic versions are available.  It does have a 0.1 to 1% side effect of kidney damage.

The antibiotic functions by damaging the cellular wall machinery of the infecting bacteria.  Scientists Reengineer Antibiotic to Overcome Dangerous Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria tells that bacteria developed a defense against vancomycin.  A single atom change in the bacteria's peptidoglycan renders the antibiotic useless.

Through some clever organic chemistry, researchers at The Scripps Research Institute synthesized a new version of the antibotic, substituting an amidine instead of an iminium.  Obviously life isn't that easy, there were some complications and they ended up with other modifications as well.  but the fundamental result - something that will save lives when there is nothing else.  Sounds like a nobel career, doesn't it? 

Forget the One You're With

A friend was musing today why we have such a lack of neutrality and even civility, in newscasts.  The immediate answer is because it is profitable.  Fox News became a network giant with their right-leaning interpretation of the news.  Of course, what enabled Fox News was the left-leaning interpretation of other news networks.  By catering to a niche market, today's newscasters provide exactly what their viewers want to see/hear. 

But what enabled opinionated journalism was technology.  Before cable news networks, U.S. viewers were content with the presentations by anchors such as Peter Jennings, Tom Brokaw, and Walter Cronkite.  Technology allows a gazillion channels on your cable set-top, and we are increasingly only surfing to the channels we agree with. 

While disconcerting, it is not opinonated journalism that endangers our culture.  It is the simultaneous isolation/connection afforded by our mobile electronic gadgets.  In the 60s, Stephen Stills alarmed the establishment with his message, "Love the One You're With".  It encouraged a generation to learn about and accept those around us. 

Today with our iPods, iPhones, (the letter, 'i', is almost Freudian), we isolate ourselves and listen to exactly what we want to hear, either from music or people.  We don't talk to the ones around us, much less love them.  We are becoming less and less open to new ideas and other people. 

The danger to society is that without trust and empathy, we construct personal defenses to protect the fragile individual cocooned in iGadgets.  This reduces the efficiency and progress of society because of the wasted energy.  The danger to ourselves is that our lives are boxed into whomever we were once upon a time.

E-Book Sales Overwhelming Paperbacks

Kindle DX

In January 2008, I received my first Kindle and fell in love with the convenience of E-book readers.  My Kindle DX shown on the left replaced my original, although I'm not certain I would choose the larger size again.  It takes up a lot of space, while reading, and while stashed in my computer bag.

There is only one thing that vexes me - the price of the bestsellers.  For example, Donald Rumsfeld's Known and Unknown: A Memoir was more expensive for the Kindle than a hardbound book.  When the Kindle first came out, Amazon attempted to keep the prices of the bestsellers below $6.  Then Apple introduced the iPad.  Publishers flocked to the Apple wonder and threatened to leave the Kindle unless Amazon permitted the publishers to set the price.  Hence, on Kindle, the cost of Known and Unknown is $19.99, pretty costly when it doesn't have to be.

E-book Sales, Devices, Soar notes that many independent writers have lower prices, hoping to entice readers.  (My two novels are priced at $0.99, which is the lowest price Amazon will permit.)  The MSNBC article speculates that eventually E-book prices will come back down again, because readers will shy away from the higher-priced offerings.  It also speculates that writers may be the real losers, because eventually compensation to the authors will be reduced.  Mmm.  In The Great Buck Howard, the Tom Hanks character muses, 'you hardly see the word writer without struggling in front of it.'  Too true.

Amazon Now Selling More Kindle Books than Print Books tells the e-retailer giant is selling more Kindle books than hardcover and paperbacks combined.  The trend is also international - Amazon.co.uk is also selling more E-books than hardcovers. 

Domain Name Suggests New Kindle Will Have Stylus explains that Amazon has registered the domain name, kindlescribe.com.  Tech watchers believe a new product offering will be soon - Amazon has once again reduced the price of the current generation, but refurbished, products.  They did that just prior to releasing the Kindle 3.  Who says there aren't patterns to life?

Weather Satellite Gap

Artist conception of NOAA-19 in orbit.
Image Credit: Lockheed Martin

Although we may grumble at our extended weather forecasts, they are amazingly accurate.  For example, in Florida, we know that our daily summer forecast is going to be hot with a chance of scattered thunderstorms. 

The NOAA-19 was the last of the TIROS ATN series of satellites, launched 6 February, 2009.  It has a 20 channel microwave radiometer, high resolution infrared radiation sounder, and space environment monitor, among the the instrumentation used by meteorologists to predict tomorrow's weather. 

The new line of weather satellites is the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS).  But Funding cuts could hamper forecasting, meteorlogists and federal officials say.  Currently two of the three polar satellites are not fully functional, and the third is nearing end of life.  The third satellite is nearing end of life.  To avoid a loss of weather sensing, NOAA is rushing a prototype satellite to the launch pad for an October launch.  Then there are no other satellites until perhaps 2017, when we could have real end-of-life issues. 

The JPSS was only half-funded for FY 2011.  It is going to require national will to fund the weather satellite program to be ready before we lose weather sensing capability.

Losing the Soul of a Company

Hewlett Packard Instrumentation Logo

 

Although Hewlett Packard is now a household name and many have HP printers and computers, chances are you don't have the logo pictured above, from a piece of microwave test equipment.  Analysis - HP: Dial "M" for mahem tells that the company has decided to exit the PC and table business.  Aside from accountants, the question on everyone's lips is, "Why would the world's largest manufacturer of PCs suddenly decided to quit making them?"

Hewlett Packard started in a Palo Alto garage in 1939.  The founders were Bill Hewlett and Dave Packard, electrical engineering graduates from nearby Stanford University.  The first successful product was an audio oscillator, a piece of test equipment that produces electrical signals.  Walt Disney Productions purchased several, and it proved to be the tipping point of growth for the company.

The company became involved in computers because none of the computer manufacturers were interested in controlling instrumentation and measurement equipment.  The engineering DNA cultivated by Bill and Dave was perhaps only equaled at Bell Laboratories and before long, HP was researching new technologies, materials, and processes for their instrumentation-oriented computers.  They were hugely successful, even venturing into a line of business computers, although the company's primary focus was the instrumentation and test equipment.

In the early 70s, HP discovered a market for programmable desktop calculators, although more akin to a computer than the 4-bangers used by accountants.  But they always had an interface to control the company's test equipment.  In 1972, HP released the HP-35, a handheld calculator that sold for $400 which could perform the scientific and engineering calculations always approximated by slide rules.  This electronic slide rule propelled HP's growth.  In fact, in the late 70s, it became close to a calculator company. 

These were the halcyon days for HP.  Their engineering DNA rapidly produced new products - digital surveying, large expansion of medical products, gas chromatography, and many more.  They were niche markets - the products solved a need.  Although the product obviously required a business case, the primary decision was whether the product was needed and whether it had synergy with HP's DNA.

HP was the most admired company by engineers around the world.  It produced computers and calculators that enabled their own personal success.  In the engineering and manufacturing laboratories everywhere, their test equipment was the most desired and purchased.  They attracted the brightest and most innovative from the universities, fueling even greater success.  But they were not a household name.

In the 1980s, HP sold their first laser printer, eventually taking them away from their roots of instrumentation.  Their commercial line of computers also began during this decade, defocusing the company.

In 1999, HP's transformation into a commercial product company was complete.  They spun off their instrumentation and engineering products into a company named Agilent.  HP itself would focus on commercial products.  About this time Carly Fiorina became CEO.  By the time she resigned in 2005, the company had lost market value and was losing its talented staff - both voluntary and involuntary departures.  Also during her tenure, HP purchased Compaq Computers.  One pundit penned this purchase was 'like two drunks trying to hold each other up'.  Dell Computer was eating everyone's lunch.

Somehow through the remnants of engineering DNA, the company managed to claw back into respectability within the the consumer market, becoming the world's largest PC manufacturer.  Of course the profit margins are almost zero, and manufacturing is all performed off-shore.  And they want to exit the PC business and focus on speciality software.

Mmm.  Engineers foresaw the future when Hewlett Packard made the turn to commercial PCs and ditched their engineering talent into Agilent.  But no one could argue there were more dollars in commercial PCs.  But that is the problem with western businesses.  Today if you are not the biggest, you don't have the attention and lowest price of the supply chain.  Investment in new technology is discouraged.  Last spring I spent considerable time with an entrepreneur in optical communication.  Despite his efforts, the U.S. is losing ground in optical communication to China.  The reason - financial analysts in the western world are quarterly-based.  The only important numbers are this quarter's numbers, which means that companies must eliminate the engineering and development investment pursued by HP during its halcyon days. China, meanwhile has patient money, permitting its companies (or is it country?) to prepare for the future.

Today's western companies have neither soul nor control of their destiny.  It is too bad - it was fun to watch companies like HP, Digital Equipment, AT&T, Sony, Honda, among others.