Zark's

Is the Global Radiation Paper True?

Planet Earth
Image Credit: NASA

Mmm.  Perhaps you have seen some of the headlines - New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole in Global Warming Alarmism and Climate Change Debunked?  Not So Fast.  All the fruit throwing has been triggered by the paper, On the Misdiagnosis of Surface Temperature Feedbacks from Variations in Earth’s Radiant Energy Balance. I could not discern anywhere in the paper or abstract any hyperbole, but instead, just another climate model.

Computer modeling of even simple things is difficult.  There are an unknown number of variables affecting the the Earth's weather, and I suspect they are dynamic - meaning the important variables change over time.  It is also easy to create a model that is correct for a specific set of variables, but if anything changes, it generates inaccurate estimates. 

Since the Carribean waters are warming, hurricane season is upon us.  Remember the spaghetti plots with all of the different hurricane prediction models for a particular storm that frequently diverge and scatter all over the Gulf of Mexico?  Weather and climate modeling is difficult and made more complex by nonlinear processes.  Recall the Butterfly Effect, which hypothesizes, "Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?" (I have written a novel, Butterflies Escape, with this as a storyline.)

The question being asked in the paper is whether a feedback mechanism has been properly modeled in other climate computer models.  Essentially, the paper questions whether the Earth would radiate more heat if global temperatures were to rise, instead of less, as many models assume.  (The latter assume that clouds will effectively block the radiation of heat into space.)  The authors of the paper base their assumptions upon some NASA radiometric measurements and construct a model for that specific data set.

In a system, feedback is when the output essentially changes the input, which then changes the output, which then changes the input ....  It is difficult to model a complex system's feedback and fraught with errors. Guys - it is really, really, tough.

So what do I think after reading the paper?  One thing about a model - it should pass the giggle test.  That is, does it agree with expectations and observations?  The glaciers are undeniably melting. Something is happening.  But are we seeing a decline of Earth's heat into space?  It is something worthy of further investigation.  But for now, we seem to have another climate model for our spaghetti runs, but this one diverges from many of the others.

 

Surprising Court Approval of Genetic Patents

Breast Cancer Cell
Image Credit: National Cancer Institute

Back in April, I had blogged about Can Companies Patent Parts of the Body?  I explained that Mriad Genetics has seven patents on the genes, BRCA1, and BRCA2, which are associated with breast and ovarian cancer.

Court upholds patenting of genes in Myriad case tells that naturally, biotechnology companies are ecstastic, telling everyone that will listen that invalidation of the patents would devastate the biotechnology industry.  The court agreed with the Myriad's lawyers that DNA assumes a different molecular form outside the body.  Thus the court has determined that isolated genes are an artificial product.

The decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit was not unanimous - one of the three judge panel disagreed with the majority decision. The New York Times tells the judge compared the decision to plucking a leaf from a tree and calling it a human invention.

The suit originated because Myriad originated legal action against the University of Pennyslvania researchers who were analyzing the genes, known to cause breast cancer.  The ACLU subsequently filed for invalidation of the patents because they are inhibiting research. Expect an appeal to the Supreme Court, aided by the dissenting judge's lengthy opinion.

The court did invalidate some of Myriad's patents, although Myriad was pleased the the overall outcome.  The company's BRCA activities account for 88 percent of its revenues.  In particular, the court invalidated patents on comparing one gene sequence to another.

Mmm.  I believe intellectual propery ownership has gone amok.  It is extremely rare that a court does not invalidate at least a portion of patents in any lawsuit, indicating the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office are approving patent applications that should have been rejected.  How can the patent office decide that Amazon's 'one-click' button on their website is worthy of protection?  What unique thought or invention took place?

Similarly Britney Spears may be sued by The Bellamy Brothers explains that song writers are planning a multimillion dollar lawsuit because one of her songs uses the phrase, 'would you hold it against me'.  That phrase was used by the Bellamy Brothers in 'If I Said You Had a Beautiful Body'. 

We have 7 billion people on this planet and the Bellamy Brothers believe they can control the succession of six words?  Sheesh, how did we get here?

The Ruby Pipeline

Ruby Natural Gas Pipeline Route
Image Credit: EIA

On 27 July 11, the Ruby pipeline, which transports natural gas from the Opal Hub in Wyoming to pipeline interconnects near Malin, Oregon began operation.  It is a 680 mile-long, 42-inch transmission line, capable of transporting 1.5 billion cubic feet per day. The designed operating pressure is 1440 psig (pound-force per square inch). 

Construction for the pipeline commenced on 31 July 2010.  Over 5100 workers were on the payroll at construction's peak.  It has four compressor stations along the right-of-way.  The EIA article explains construction took longer than expected because of environmental (nesting migratory birds) problems.

Although the owners are doubtless relieved to begin operation, Changed US gas price environment poses challenge for Ruby.  When the pipeline project was envisioned, there was not as much competition with cheap Canadian gas.  In addition, there was a large price spread between the price of gas at the Opal Hub and northern California.  That price differential has all but disappeared.  The platts article tells that 14 shippers have signed contracts to utilize the pipeline.

Beta Males are Happier

An exemplary Line 1 Hereford bull.
Image Credit: Michael Macneil, USDA

Wikipedia explains the alpha is the individual with the highest rank.  They are afforded preference with privileges of first to eat and mate.  Violators are killed or ousted.

In nature, the alpha usually establishes itself through superior physical prowess.  They are most often replaced through a challenge.  Wikipedia notes that in societies where it is a fight to the death, alphas rarely live to old age.

In humans, we typically associate the alpha male as the personalities of Mad Men.  They always get the girl, and always have their way.  But the Benefits of Being a Beta Male, explains that a study of male baboons reveals the alphas higher stress hormone levels.  The increased responsibility and defense of the position brings conflict and stress. 

The NIH article tells that long-term exposure to stress hormones can reduce the immune systems's capacity and also increase susceptibility to cardiovascular diseases.  Some other interesting notes: a) both alphas and betas were equally challenged by lower society members, b) almost equal grooming from the females, and c) but the alpha males spent far more time jealously guarding their fertile females.

In case you are interested - stress hormones such as cortisol, growth hormone, and norepinephrine are released during periods of high stress.  They convert energy from storage to muscles, increasing heart rate, blood pressure, and breathing rate.  Less defensive functions such as immune system, digestion, and reproduction are shut down. 

China Brings Fast Neutron Reactor Online

Original Concept of Experimental Breeder Reactor
Image Credit: Department of Energy

There were three correlated nuclear power stories today.  The first, Uranium Shortage Can't be Ignored tells that there is a pending shortage of the raw material used to fuel nuclear reactors. The Forbes article tells that production does not meet demand and current estimates of demand versus production shows this gap will widen during the next decade. China plans on increasing its nuclear capacity by a factor of 8 and India (which is a very energy-poor nation) wants to increase capacity by a factor of 13.

Analyzing Nuclear Power in China Following the Suspension of Approvals Post Fukishima tells that China has approved 34 new nuclear reactors, of which 26 are under construction.  After the Fukushima accident, the nation has suspended new approvals for a comprehensive safety review.  China has 14 operational plants compared to the U.S. with 104.  The U.S. also has 2 nuclear plants under construction.

China brings first-fourth generation nuclear reactor online tells that a 20 MW fast reactor was connected to the power grid in a suburb of Beijing.  Wikipedia explains the chain reaction is sustained by fast neutrons.  The advantage over the older pressurized water reactors is the new design has much less nuclear waste, meaning that more of the nuclear fuel is consumed.  Nuclear researchers estimate an efficiency 60 times greater than conventional reactors.  As a bonus, the radioactive waste that is produced is less toxic than the reactors constructed in the past.

Mmm.  Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima stand as evidence of how badly things can go wrong with a nuclear power plant.  And to use a Biblical phrase, "the sins of the fathers are visited upon the sons" is very true with the long radiactive lifetime of nuclear waste.  From a numbers perspective, the safety of nuclear power plants has not been very good.  A reasonable estimate is less than 500 nuclear power plants have been constructed, with 3 rather spectacular failures.  I am a nuclear power advocate, but there needs to be vigilant supervision and monitoring of these facilities.

Revisiting the Bakken Formation

Areal Extent of the Bakken Formation
Image Credit: Department of Energy

The Bakken formation extends over Montana, North Dakota, and Saskatchewan.  It lies beneath the Williston Basin and is completely underneath the surface.  Geologists date the formation to Late Devonian to early Mississippian, corresponding to about 360 million years old.

North Dakota Oil Patch Back to Record-Setting Pace explains the importance.  The GrandForksHerald tells there were 184 rigs drilling new holes and existing production in May was 361,438 barrels of petroleum a day.  Projections are for a total 2011 output of 133 million barrels.  (Texas - 417, Alaska - 219, California -204)  Some estimates for the field range up to 500 billion barrels.

USGS prepares two-year study on Bakken tells that three years ago they estimated 3-4.3 billion barrels of recoverable oil.  Today, a commercial energy supplier estimates 24 billion barrels of oil in this field.  To place this in perspective, U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Proved Reserves, 2009 listed the known reserves at 20.6 billion barrels. 

Example of a sample after testing
Image Credit: Department of Energy

The oil is deep - the central and deepest basement location is 15,000 feet near Williston, North Dakota.  Besides being deep, the rock formation is not porous, which means that oil does not flow readily from the formation. 

To coax the reluctant petroleum, a technique known as hydraulic fracturing is deployed.  Water and sand are pumped down under high pressure to fracture the formation and free the petroleum so that it can be pumped to the surface. 

Despite the riches, there have been more dry holes drilled than producing wells.  To support U.S. energy producers, the Department of Energy has established a website specifically to provide decision support.  The Bakken Decision Support System offers oil production and geologic data for the formation.  Check it out.

 

 

Who Knew - The Shop Around the Corner Foretold the Future

Borders Bookstore

The Shop Around the Corner, aka You've Got Mail is the charming lovestory/comedy featuring Meg Ryan and Tom Hanks.  As you probably remember, Meg Ryan's bookstore is eclipsed by the large bookstore chain of Tom Hanks.  Because they can sell books cheaper than Meg Ryan's small bookstore can even purchase them wholesale, her store goes out of business.

Ironically, 13 years later, one of America's large bookstore chains is shutting its doors.  Farewell to Borders explains that 399 stores are to be permanently shuttered.  The Los Angeles Times article adds that Borders began 40 years ago as a small college bookstore in Michigan.

Borders closure indicator of change also tells that independent bookstores only account for ten percent of national book sales.  Borders with Barnes and Noble accounted for 30 percent of U.S. sales.  One of the things that has happened is that the average book in the U.S. sells less than 2000 copies in its lifetime.  Unless the author is lucky, it is incredibly difficult to succeed in today's market. See my lament in Noise - Consequence of Overpopulation. 

But the story is not about bookstores becoming obsolete in the digital age as my business analysts conclude.  The fundamental issue is scalability.  Today's businesses achieve productivity never dreamed in the The Pajama Game.  There is no fat and no margin left in today's businesses.  The only remaining tool to cut costs is to squeeze the supply chain, which is how WalMart has succeeded.  But if you are small, like The Shop Around the Corner, and today, even Borders, you cannot compete against the bigger guy.  Agility, innovation, and other small business attributes only postpone the day of closing.  At the end of the day, it is impossible to compete against a much larger competitor. 

It is true the population is purchasing less hardcopy books. This is also where scalability appears.  Tablets and smartphones can also display e-books.  Because those devices are multipurpose and can be used for other activities (like phone conversations), they are scalable and the consumer benefits from the multipurpose toy.

In essence, scalability is the attribute or capability of going big.  Really big.  But I wonder - is there another way?

 

Has the Large Hadron Collider Brushed a Higgs Particle?

Display of an event with a Z boson producing two muons Copyright: CERN

The Higgs boson is an elementary particle first proposed in 1964 that gives mass to a more complex composition.  If the theory is true, it explains why some particles like the photon have no mass, but others, like the W and Z bosons have substantial mass.  (A boson is one of the two fundamental types of subatomic particle.  The other type is a fermion.  Bosons have an integral value of spin, in contrast to fermions which have a half-integral value.  There are six types of elementary bosons: photon, gluon, plus and minus W bosons, Z, Higgs boson, and the Graviton.)

Until now (maybe), the Higgs boson has never been observed, even though scientists have been searching for almost 5 decades.  It is believed there is a Higgs field throughout the universe and the presence of a Higgs boson couples the particle to the field, causing it to have mass, which otherwise it has none. 

Cern scientists suspect glimpse of Higgs boson tells that researchers at the large hadron collider are excited about two data bumps that might be the signature of the elusive subatomic particle.  Recall the large hadron collider has a large 18 mile-long racetrack in which electromagnets accelerate particles in different directions and then collide them in front of sensitive instrumentation.  This 'bump' occurs at energy levels between 120 and 140 Gev (gigaelectronvolts).  1 Gev corresponds to the mass of a proton found in ordinary atoms.

American scientists at the Tevatron accelerator have similarly been searching for the Higgs boson, but their racetrack is 3.5 times less powerful.  (The Tevatron has a 3.9 mile racetrack and can only accelerate particles up to 1 Tev, hence its name.)  Because it is outclassed by CERN's large hadron collider, the Department of Energy plans to shut down the Tevatron in September of this year.  Still, its scientists are hopeful they will be the first to positively identify the Higgs particle.

DNA is More Complicated Than You Learned

Isolating Human DNA
Image Credit: National Institute on Deafness and Other Communication Disorders (NIDCD)

DNA is the nucleic acid that provides the genetic instructions for a living organism.  As first decoded by James D. Watson and Francis Crick in 1953, DNA consists of two long polymers that run in opposite order.

The long backbones are essentially long sugar molecules.  The two polymers are linked, much like a ladder has steps between the legs, with phosphate-based base pairs.  As you recall from popular literature, the double helix is twisted, and the bonds for the base pairs, 'or steps' are relatively weak.  Sections of the DNA are identified as chromosomes, with a healthy human having 46 chromosomes.  The chromosomes are further identified as containing genes. 

With DNA Discovery, 'Human Soup' Gets More Complicated explains that in high school, you probably learned there were four types of base pairs: adenine, guanine, thymine, and cytosine.  Perhaps you even memorized gene sequences as consisting of these base pairs such as ATCGGTGA.  The human genome has about 3 billion base pairs, and with the four different types, the probability of an individual genome is pretty small. 

Researchers at the University of North Carolina have recently discovered the 7th and 8th type of base, which makes the DNA molecule even more improbable than we first learned in high school.  Scientists are not quite certain how and what these additional base pairs do, but it is suspected that they are involved in the twisting or binding of the long polymers.  (The Fox News article tells the new bases have tongue-twisting names of 5-formylcytosine and 5-carboxylcytosine, which infers they are related to the original base cytosine.)

Mmm.  Similar to the subatomic world, the living world appears very organized and simple from a macroscopic world.  Yet, as we look more deeply into our physical and living world, we discover life is exceeding complex.  Is it because we began with the wrong primitive expressions (such as atoms or base pairs) and to describe the world with these building blocks is a herculean task?  Or is it that the world is very, very complicated?  (And correspondingly very improbable.)

Lost Space Travel Begins With Atlantis

Space shuttle Atlantis lands for the final time at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
Image credit: NASA/Bill Ingalls

Perhaps there is irony or foreboding with the name Atlantis and the last shuttle mission.

To be certain, the Shuttle program needed to end.  It had never become what was envisioned, and its eventual mission was klunky and expensive - $1B a launch.

Today I pondered how mankind has lost the artistry or craftsmanship to recreate Michelangelo's David.  Is the space shuttle landing a retreat, strategic pause, or a similar permanent loss for mankind?  It seems silly to brand something as a permanent loss, but with the world's preoccupation on immediate return or gratification, do you foresee anything changing?

It could also be like a sports team that must endure several seasons of dismal play as the club rebuilds itself with new players and a new style.  It isn't always possible to change missions like NASA must do without enduring a gap in between. 

Growing up as a space enthusiast, it is hard to believe the shuttle flew for 30 years.  (The first suborbital launch was STS-1, on April 12, 1981.)  NASA is still executing some great science mission such as the Dawn spacecraft sending back those marvelous pictures of asteroid Vesta. 

Still, history will reveal what kind of moment the Atlantis landing was - for both the U.S. and mankind.  I think there is a difference between exploration and science.  Both are necessary, but without exploration, science becomes stale.