At Stanford's Sustainability Summit, Secretary Steven Chu said, "The future prosperity of the U.S. is at risk. Energy touches everything in the U.S."
Credit: U.S. Geological Survey
I encourage everyone to invest an hour and watch his speech. (Slide up to 10:32, to skip past some of the university promotions.) In his speech, Dr. Chu explained that recent data has established a correlation between increased greenhouse gases and elevated temperatures. It also shows that mankind is directly responsible.
Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased 40 percent. Interestingly, the atomic weapon tests of the 1950s placed significant levels of Carbon-14 into the atmosphere. This radioactive isotope has a half-life of 5700 years. The concentration of Carbon-14 has been decreasing much, much faster than its half-life can explain. The reason is that fossil fuels are lifting up Carbon-12 in vast quantities. (Fossil fuels are millions of years old, and the Carbon has decayed into Carbon-12.) The declining ratio shows that mankind is directly responsible for the greenhouse gases.
A very clever paired-satellite constellation with precision radar has been able to accurately measure the mass of the Arctic and Greenland. (They measure the force of gravity - corresponding to the mass underneath them.) The data shows that the ice cap is melting rapidly. The instrumentation is so sensitive that the data shows the mass changing with the seasons.
What most scientists think: Solar energy striking the Earth is approximately constant over an 11-year solar cycle. Heat-trapping greenhouse gases have increased, preventing the escape of infrared radiation. Eventually, the Earth will reach an equilibrium at which the temperature and radiated heat will be in stasis. But the Earth's oceans introduce a 100 year time lag between the increase of greenhouse gases and the full observation of the effect.
The U.S. innovation machine is the world's greatest. But, Dr. Chu says we are falling behind in clean energy race. The U.S. is now behind in: a) automobile efficiency, b) batteries, c) electricity transmission, d) power electronics, and e) nuclear power.
"Why doesn't the U.S. attempt a Manhattan Project?" Secretary Chu agrees that we need a large spike in funding, similar to the nuclear weapon program, or the 1960s moon shot. With the large expenditures on energy, we should be prepared to invest tens and tens of billions in energy innovation. Scalability is fundamental.
Another of the questions asked of Dr. Chu was, "How does the U.S. not fall behind China?" He answered that we must create an environment that sends out signals to our economic and innovation engine. A big ship can be turned with small signals. There must be a declining carbon cap which will stimulate innovation and investment. A comprehensive energy bill can send the correct signals to business and they can prepare for the future world, instead of wishing for $30 a barrel oil.
If we innovate, we can win. "If we don't do that, we will lose."
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