Novel H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu) and You by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) explains that the infection is caused by a new influenza virus. Since first appearing in America during April 2009, most cases have not required hospitalization. The disease spreads through coughing and sneezing, much like seasonal flu infections. Laboratory data reveals that very few adults under 60 years of age have antibodies against this virus, although perhaps one-third of the population above this age do have the antibodies. It is unknown how much protection the antibodies provide, but anecdotal data is positive, because the pandemic seems to affect the younger individuals of the population.
H1N1 may infect 25 million: ministry tells that Japanese officials are estimating that 20% of their population will be infected with the swine flu. They expect that 1.5% of those will require hospitalization. In densely populated regions, hospitalization may increase to 2.5%. Last week about 150,000 became infected, leading Flu-hit choir contest sings to phantom audience. Because of the Japanese epidemic, which is expected to peak next month, a prestigious choir contest is only performed in front of the judges.
So do we have a problem or not? In Figure 1 below, I show a graph from this week's CDC FluView. This would seem that H1N1 is burning out, despite the epidemic being suffered in Japan.
Figure 1. Influenza Reports. Credit: CDC 22 August FluView
Where will you get your H1N1 vaccine? explains that health officials are nervous about the potential for a rapid spread with public schools opening for the new school year. Behind the Unproven H1N1 Flu Vaccine adds that the CDC has given approval for vaccine manufacturers to fill and seal the vaccine vials. It will be mid-October though, before approval could be given to ship those vials. The vaccine needs additional safety and effectiveness testing. The Times article also explains that two shots, three weeks apart, will be required. Because most immune systems have no antibodies for the H1N1, it will take almost eight weeks for the patients to have full protection.
I don't want to be guilty of hype, but Health officials warn of H1N1 vaccine's link to deadly nerve disease explains that in 1976 there was a similar rush vaccine program for swine flu. Although a direct correlation was never established to the vaccine, several hundred cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome suddenly appeared. (The vaccines were also withdrawn from distribution.) This is a disease in which your body's immune system attacks your nerves. Death link to swine flu vaccine tells that European health specialists have been warned to watch for similar responses.
Just as hurricane parties are not a good idea, health officials also discourage swine flu parties. Debating the wisdom of swine flu parties explains that the idea is to hopefully catch a mild dose of H1N1 so that when flu season actually occurs, your body would have immunity. Mmm. It is not a good idea, but there are worse ideas. (In other words, don't try this at home.)
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