Zark's

Turning the American Economy

Whirlpool will close plant in Evansville explains that Evansville, Indiana, once produced more refrigerators than anywhere on the planet, but will soon produce none.  The IndyStar article adds that Navistar recently closed a diesel engine manufacturing plant in Indianapolis.  The state of Indiana has lost 20% of its industrial jobs since the recession began, many of them permanently.

Unless there are barriers such as taxes or shipping costs, does anyone believe they can manufacture a product cheaper in America (or any western country) than China or Vietnam?  I am not melancholic for the factory - the gritty lyrics of Simon and Garfunkel's 'My Little Town', "flying my bike past the gates, Of the factories", reminds me that many desperately wanted to leave those factory towns.  Ironically most got their wish - because those little towns no longer have employment.

An economy is frustratingly difficult to describe.  Wiki has one definition that I prefer - a circular flow of income and output.  Adam Smith identified that an economy must satisfy the needs of the populace.  As we recall from economic courses, a market economy is where the prices of goods and services are determined primarily by supply and demand.  The problem confronting America and other western countries is - what product or services can they provide?

How science can create millions of new jobs argues that a self-inflicted drought in American scientific research has left the nation without the intellectual capital to create new goods and services.  The Business Week article tells that after the 1990s, American business research and development turned to end product development instead of the basic research originally pursued by Bell Labs, HP Labs, Xerox, IBM, McDonnell Douglas, etc.  Mmm.  There is something else that has happened - the rise of multinational corporations. 

Today's giants have no nationality favorites.  They are content and profitable with the present global economy. In Is America Falling Off the Flat Earth, Intel's Jim Jarrett is quoted, "We go to where the smart people are, and there are smart people all over the world."  Today there are more engineers in a single city of India working on 64-bit microprocessors than anywhere else in the world.

I like the Business Week suggestion of turning around the American economy through research and development.  I believe it is going to take deft management by the national government to achieve the desired results.  The prescription is similar for all western countries - whether Germany, U.K., or Japan.  It does not have to be zero-sum.  The retirement of fossil fuels would be a win-win for everyone.  But policy-makers take note: our present economy is not sustainable.

Why Doesn't H1N1 Go Away?

Novel H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu) and You by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) explains that the infection is caused by a new influenza virus.  Since first appearing in America during April 2009, most cases have not required hospitalization.  The disease spreads through coughing and sneezing, much like seasonal flu infections.  Laboratory data reveals that very few adults under 60 years of age have antibodies against this virus, although perhaps one-third of the population above this age do have the antibodies.  It is unknown how much protection the antibodies provide, but anecdotal data is positive, because the pandemic seems to affect the younger individuals of the population.

H1N1 may infect 25 million: ministry tells that Japanese officials are estimating that 20% of their population will be infected with the swine flu.  They expect that 1.5% of those will require hospitalization.  In densely populated regions, hospitalization may increase to 2.5%.  Last week about 150,000 became infected, leading Flu-hit choir contest sings to phantom audience.  Because of the Japanese epidemic, which is expected to peak next month, a prestigious choir contest is only performed in front of the judges.

So do we have a problem or not?  In Figure 1 below, I show a graph from this week's CDC FluView.  This would seem that H1N1 is burning out, despite the epidemic being suffered in Japan.

Figure 1. Influenza Reports.  Credit: CDC 22 August FluView

Where will you get your H1N1 vaccine? explains that health officials are nervous about the potential for a rapid spread with public schools opening for the new school year.  Behind the Unproven H1N1 Flu Vaccine adds that the CDC has given approval for vaccine manufacturers to fill and seal the vaccine vials.  It will be mid-October though, before approval could be given to ship those vials.  The vaccine needs additional safety and effectiveness testing.  The Times article also explains that two shots, three weeks apart, will be required.  Because most immune systems have no antibodies for the H1N1, it will take almost eight weeks for the patients to have full protection.

I don't want to be guilty of hype, but Health officials warn of H1N1 vaccine's link to deadly nerve disease explains that in 1976 there was a similar rush vaccine program for swine flu.  Although a direct correlation was never established to the vaccine, several hundred cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome suddenly appeared.  (The vaccines were also withdrawn from distribution.)  This is a disease in which your body's immune system attacks your nerves.  Death link to swine flu vaccine tells that European health specialists have been warned to watch for similar responses.

Just as hurricane parties are not a good idea, health officials also discourage swine flu parties.  Debating the wisdom of swine flu parties explains that the idea is to hopefully catch a mild dose of H1N1 so that when flu season actually occurs, your body would have immunity.  Mmm.  It is not a good idea, but there are worse ideas.  (In other words, don't try this at home.)

Rethinking Artificial Trees

The first artificial tree that I remember was a shiny, aluminum-branched contrivance that had a floodlight with a motorized color filter, sequentially bathing the tree in red, blue, and green.  If you recall in A Charlie Brown Christmas, the cast of the Christmas play requested the bald-headed, insecure and introspective, Charlie Brown to procure a 'modern' Christmas tree instead of something natural.  But I digress...

Could mechanical trees save the world? proposes that 'modern' trees could have leaves of algae and collect carbon dioxide more efficiently than natural trees.  The BBC article suggests an artificial tree could remove 10 metric tons of carbon a day.  Included in the proposal is equipping buildings with skins of algae tubes that could also collect CO2.

Wiki reminds us that Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an incredibly stable molecule.  It takes a lot of energy to separate the oxygen and carbon atoms once the molecule has formed.  The CO2 molecule has two double bonds where two carbon electrons are shared with an oxygen atom.  It is the formation of these covalent bonds that releases the heat energy that enabled early mankind to industrialize the world by burning fossil fuels.  It is also the bane of modern civilization, although Wiki reminds us that during the Jurassic era, CO2 in the atmosphere was 4 to 5 times greater than today.  A factoid you might not have known, CO2 never occurs in liquid state, regardless of temperature at pressures less than 5.1 atmospheres.  Unless pressurized, it transitions directly from solid state (dry ice) to its gaseous state.

The Colorado Trees website provides some interesting statistics about natural trees.   An average tree absorbs about 48 pounds of CO2 a year.  It takes about one acre of tree coverage to compensate for driving an automobile about 8000 miles.  If every American family to were to plant a new tree, the aggregate CO2 sequestration would equal about 5% of the global CO2 production.  An average tree produces enough oxygen for two humans.

An interesting Department of Energy study tells that algae reactors could produce 20 grams of biomass per square meter per day, for the purpose of harvesting artificial petroleum.  But that requires far greater CO2 concentration levels than present in the atmosphere.  A CO2 pond with only atmospheric CO2 concentrations sequesters about 0.2 g carbon per square meter per day.  If I did the math correctly, a 20 foot diameter algae pond will thus sequester 17 pounds of CO2 a year.  (It is consistent with the CO2 sequestration of a tree.)  Compare this to the 3.3 pounds of CO2 that a 60 watt light bulb produces for only 24 hours. 

Mmm.  CO2 sequestration does not seem to scale, does it?  In other words, 7 billion people on the planet burning fossil fuels produces so much CO2 it seems unlikely that we can capture the CO2.  Methinks we need something other than artificial trees.

While the U.S. Fiddles, the Arctic Melts

Okay, maybe the title is an example of of sensationalism, but sometimes my keyboard gets away from me.  Wiki explains the U.S. signed the Law of the Sea Treaty in 1994, but has not ratified it.  The reasons for not ratifying it are fuzzy after all this time, but the primary justification against it seems to be the that it could subject the nation to decisions from an international tribunal.  As Arctic opens, US must act explains that because the U.S. has not ratified the treaty, it has no voice on the council that makes decisions about the Arctic's continental shelf.  The country also loses influence on controlling shipping through the Arctic, which will soon resemble the Great Lakes - frozen in winter, but open in summer.

Arctic shipping - stormy seas or smooth sailing, explains that during the last four years, an area larger than Alaska has melted in the Arctic.  It was in 2007 that Canada's Northwest Passage opened for the first time in modern history.  Last year, 62 ships sailed in the waters.  Again though, until the U.S. Senate ratifies the treaty, its influence on this developing shipping is minimal. 

On a positive note, U.S. bans commercial fishing in warming Arctic tells that the U.S. has declared a region greater than the size of California off-limits for fishing.  American fisheries managers hope to avoid the overfishing experienced by the Bering Sea when seafaring nations exploited a lack of regulations. 

Surfing Gravitational Waves

Do you think surfing gravitational waves will ever catch on?  Gravity wave hunters find nothing and make a big discovery tells that every time mass is accelerated, it warps space-time.  Even getting out of bed causes ripples in space-time.  Mmm.  Maybe we better review what space-time is.

Wiki explains that space-time is a mathematical representation of space and time as a four-dimensional vector.  In classical physics, time is constant and independent of the spatial dimensions.  In relativistic physics, time is dependent upon the velocity of an object and also upon gravitational fields that can retard time.  Visualize a piece of graph paper where all of the lines are straight with horizontal and vertical lines are perpendicular to each other.  This graph paper then represents a flat space-time.  Suppose you were to place a cannonball in the middle of the graph paper.  Now the grid lines would be curved, with most of the distortion nearest the mass. These curved lines would represent how the gravity force emitted by the cannonball slows down time in its vicinity.

This graph paper is static - it merely describes how time is bent around the cannonball.  Similar to the electromagnetic wave that is produced by moving a static charge, moving the cannonball creates a gravitational wave.  The wave actually dissipates energy from the source.  Wiki explains that the Earth rotating the sun generates a gravitational wave and the Earth loses about 200 joules/sec in the form of gravitational radiation.

To date, researchers have not been able to detect gravitational waves.  Speculation had been that gravitational radiation from the Big Bang should have been observable, but so far ... nada.  Listening for gravity waves, silence becomes meaningful explains that the Laser-Inferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) is L-shaped, with 2.5 mile-long arms.  The idea is that if the Earth passes through a gravitational wave, then time will be slightly dilated in one arm of the laser inferometer and time measurements of the laser light will reveal a difference.  But it has to be sensitive - the equivalent distance at the speed of light is less than an atomic nucleus.  Perhaps 1E-16 centimeters.  See this link for pictures of the two facilities.

The CalTech LIGO website tells that scientists believe that gravity waves travel at the speed of light.  Although yet undiscovered, the graviton is believed to the particle analog of the waves and has zero rest mass.  The theory is that a gravity wave exhibits a force on an object perpendicular to the direction of travel of the wave.  Consequently it will stretch the object in one direction and squeeze it in another.

In many ways these waves seem similar to electromagnetic waves, which scientists and engineers understand well.  It is just amazing that ever since Isaac Newton described gravity in 1666, science has not been able to describe gravity. 

New Clues in Parkinson's Disease

Wiki tells that Parkinson's disease is a degenerative affliction of the central nervous system that degrades motor skills, speech and other body functions.  The Mayo Clinic's website provides some basic information.  A primary symptom of the disease is a tremor that usually begins in one hand and then expands to other muscle control.  Usually one side of the body is afflicted first.  Muscle stiffness is another common symptom where the muscles are rigid and limit range of motion.  Speech is frequently affected, sometimes described as giving victims a 'thick' tongue.

Usually the disease occurs in middle or late life, and men are more frequently stricken.  The Mayo webpage tells there is a loose correlation with heredity, but Wiki suggests that there is a tighter correlation with geography.  Toxins are known to initiate Parkinson's symptoms.  These symptoms themselves are associated with inhibited production of dopamine, a chemical messenger, but how the disease causes this condition has puzzled researchers.  Progression of symptoms can occur over a 20 year period, but it can be much less with some patients.  Wiki tells that the disease occurs in 120-180 per 100,000 individuals.  Some well-known people afflicted include Michael J. Fox, Janet Reno, and Billy Graham. 

Drugs such as levodopa (L-dopa), and others, are helpful in controlling early stages of the disease.  Unfortunately, in later stages, they are not as effective and treatment success declines.  Sometimes a deep brain stimulator is surgically implanted to supply stimulating pulses to the motor control center. 

Parkinson's disease: when the cells run out of fuel tells that researchers have also known that about 10% of patients have abnormalities with Parkinson-associated genes, PINK-1 and Parkin.  (There are six, but only these two have yielded clues to date.)  In these cases, the neural cells' energy centers; the mitochondria, have much reduced energy output, corresponding to the ADP cycle.

The Science Daily article explains that this knowledge may assist in the development of drugs that can effectively fight the disease rather than only relieve the symptoms.

Hydrogen Dissension

The Bohr model of the hydrogen atom has 7 energy levels for the electron.  Recall the energy is in quanta - a hydrogen electron can only have one of these 7 energy levels.  Sort of like the change you carry in your pocket.  There are quarters, dimes, nickels, and pennies, but nothing in between those discrete values.  The accepted ground state of hydrogen is -13.6 eV.

Blacklight Power claims there are previously unknown states of hydrogen, known as the hydrino.  Wiki tells that these new states have a radius of 1/p, where p is an integer from 2 to 137, limited by the speed of light.  Blacklight Power returns with more lab validation explains that the company has developed a solid fuel that produces 6.5 times more energy than contained in the fuel, and the reason is because of hydrinos.

To explain the process, Blacklight Power has produced a Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics. When the hydrogen electron drops below the ground state level, it yields ultraviolet light that can be converted to thermal energy.  Blacklight Power gains academic nod for controversial hydrogen technology tells that Rowan University was able to replicate the Blacklight Power's data by independently preparing its own solid fuel.  Yet there are plenty of skeptics.

Mmm.  In 1993, there was an advancement in communications theory that taught me to be slow to discount new theories or claims.  In this case, researchers reported turbo codes that achieved efficiency within a few tenths of a dB of Shannon's capacity limit.  The short story is they were right, and a sizable number of communications scientists had to change their opinions and statements.  Hence, I am slow to throw rocks at a new hypothesis. However, it would be great if there is a new energy source.

Solving the Problem of Airliner Greenhouse Gases

EU to tell dirty airlines to clean up or face penalties explains the European Union has greenhouse emission reduction targets of 3% by 2012 and 5% by 2013.  The EU recently warned over 400 airlines that non-compliance would result in penalties.  Included in the list were US Airways, United, and the US Navy.  For those that cannot meet the new emission limits, they can participate in a European emissions trading scheme.

Not too long ago, I posted Carbon tax soon for American air carriers.  I cited a newly published reference, Aviation and Climate Change, which explains that aviation accounts for 2% of the world's CO2 production, and that the US consumes 35% of the world's aviation fuel.  The US government report shows that per passenger mile, aviation produces less CO2 than every other transport except for rail.  Also, over the past three decades, aviation energy efficiency has improved more than all of the other transports.

The European aviation mandate will be a difficult challenge for the US.  According to Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA) of the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, in 2006, the US had 590,633 million passenger miles for aviation.  US highway total was 4,933,689 million passenger miles.  Rail was 5,410 million passenger miles.  (Airline traffic thus represents about 11% of US passenger mileage.)

Similar statistics are not readily available for Europe, but their aviation is estimated for 0.5% of global CO2 production.  The same reference, enviro.aero tells that 80% of the aviation greenhouse gas production is for flights greater than 900 miles and for which, there is no practical alternative.  Hence, the factor of four in aviation passenger miles between Europe and the US is reasonable because of the greater distances.  As the earlier report indicated, aviation results in less greenhouse gases than if buses or personal transportation were used.

NASA has been investing in more efficient turbine and aerodynamic design to improve energy efficiency.  New engine design might yield another 12% efficiency.  Aviation industry on track to deliver certified biofuel within two years tells that industry has been focused on biofuel.  The report explains that Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene will most likely be produced from non-agricultural plants such as algae.  

Mmm.  I used to be an advocate of algae-created biofuel.  My concern is that it does not scale, meaning that the quantities of synthetic petroleum required are so large, that we cannot produce enough efficiently or economically.  Last week, the US consumed 383 million gallons of gasoline a day.  The US also consumed 58 million gallons of aviation fuel a day.  My research suggests that photosynthesis is too slow to produce sufficient biomass for these quantities, but I am willing to be educated.  Instead, I wonder whether hydrogen is more practical for replacing aviation fuel.  It truly reduces greenhouse gases, instead of relying upon rules for emissions trading such as ethanol.)

The Spookiness that Bothered Einstein

There is a famous double-slit experiment in which a beam of light is focused upon two narrow slits.  If you recall from high school physics, an interference pattern results.  There are dark and light bands of light displayed on the screen behind the slits.  This demonstrates that light is a wave, resulting in constructive and destructive interference, much like simultaneously dropping two pebbles in a quiet pool of water.

It is quirky, because suppose one of the slits is covered.  Then the bands disappear and a single spot of light appears on the screen, indicating that light is composed of individual photons, like bullets and is not a wave.  To eliminate unknown behavior, the experiment can be performed with only a single photon emitted by the light source at a time.  (In this experiment, the single photon chooses to pass through one of the slits, but we do not know which one.) 

If there are two slits, there is an interference band, but if one slit is covered up, the light strikes the screen as a bullet, and not venturing out toward the region of the other slit.  This is amazing, because if only one photon enters a single slit at a time, there is no possibility of photons striking or interfering with each other.  Yet, an interference pattern results.  But not if the other slit is blocked.

What troubled Einstein was, 'how does the light know that the other slit is open or closed?'  Let's make it more spooky.  Again, we have a light source that emits only one photon at a time, but we also place a detector on the slits so that we know which specific slit the photon passed through.  With both slits open, the interference pattern disappears.  Our observation has changed how the experiment behaves.  Somehow the photon knew we were observing it.

The spookiness that troubled Einstein was that the world was changed just by being observed.  Einstein exclaimed, "I like to think the moon exists even when I don't look at it!"  The venerable scientist was troubled that the world was changed by mankind's observation.  Further, only a single observation establishes it for all of humanity.  When the moon is in the sky, who caused it to be there, you or me? 

The other spookiness is that the world cannot simultaneously have reality and separability.  Separability implies that two independent objects are affected only by physical forces between them such a magnetism, gravity, etc.  When there is no separability, then what happens to one object can affect the other, instantaneously (faster than the speed of light).  Quantum theory physicists consider this the 'hidden variables' demonstration. Einstein called this, "spukehafte Fernwirkung", or spooky actions. 

Spooky, quirky?  Neils Bohr, one of the architects of quantum theory, said, "... It is wrong to think that the task of physics is to find out how Nature is.  Physics concerns what we say about Nature."  In other words, the world as it exists, is because of mankind's observation.  The world would be very different, or perhaps not exist, without us.  Say what?

Yesterday I read, Spooky Physics: A Brief Introduction to the Eistein-Bohr Debate on Kindle.  Andrea Diem-Lane provides some additional insight to this spookiness that so troubled Einstein that he occupied the last quarter of his life trying to fix quantum theory.  She also adds that Nobel physicist Richard Feynman stated that analyzing the double slit experiment alone would expose the deep mysteries of quantum mechanics.

Mmm.  I'm with Einstein - I like to believe the moon exists without me looking out the window.  However this is some consolation from this spookiness.  Remember It's a Wonderful Life, the Christmas standard, where an angel shows George Bailey that the world would be very different without him?  Quantum mechanics confirms the world would be different without each one of us.

If you are interested, another readable discussion of this spookiness is, Quantum Engima: Physics Encounters Consciousness by Rosenblum and Kuttner.

Don't Count Hydrogen Cars Out

Back in May, I blogged, The Hydrogen Car - a Pause in Development?  describing the FY10 U.S. Department of Energy budget zeroing funding for personal transportation using hydrogen.  In Secretary Chu's powerpoint presentation of the budget, he says, "Moving away from funding vehicular hydrogen fuel cells to technologies with more immediate promise."  The Wall Street Journal's, Energy Secretary, Congress Collide over Hydrogen Car Funds tells that Chu believes the infrastructure changes required for hydrogen are too expansive and there are other, nearer-term alternatives.

Bucking trend, Honda backs hydrogen tells that Japan's engineering giant is continuing its research in hydrogen vehicles.  The company is so convinced, that it is not even announced plans for battery-powered vehicles.  Toyota, Hundai, and even General Motors are still developing hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

First Drive: Hydrogen-powered Mazdas tells that Mazda and BMW are developing internal combustion engines fueled with hydrogen.  Mazda's signature-product, the rotary engine, has been converted to run on hydrogen.  The National Post article adds that horsepower is almost 1/2 as with gasoline, but it does not produce greenhouse gases, only water vapor.  BMW has modified the V12 to burn either gasoline or hydrogen in its conventional piston-driven engine.

So why does the DOE emphasize battery power-powered vehicles and industry developing hydrogen vehicles?  Both perspectives are probably correct, which happens frequently in engineering. 

I like direct consumption of hydrogen in a vehicle instead of lugging heavy and life-limited batteries.  Some data distributed on the web suggests that fuel cells are much more efficient than direct combustion of hydrogen.  BMW and Mazda are commited to internal combustion, so perhaps their engineering teams can deliver products equal to fuel cells.

However, the DOE is also correct - how are we going to produce sufficient volumes of hydrogen and distribute it?  Today, industrial hydrogen is obtained from steam reforming - a process that inefficiently burns natural gas.  Distribution of either compressed or liquified hydrogen is very different than our current infrastructure.  In  contrast, the power grid already delivers electricity to every home and office in the nation.

What technology do you think will win?