Yesterday
I sort of touched on it, so today I thought I would take a complete
plunge. Some professions and disciplines might blindly extrapolate
data, but mathematicians and engineers do not just look at the data to
predict the future, but consider the bigger picture. Suppose for
example, a company has a popular phone product and quarter after
quarter, it continues gaining market share. Through extrapolation,
some believe this is going to continue on forever; hence this should be
the model for all companies. I will get back to this, but first a
small explanation.
A pattern,
as Wiki explains, is a type of theme which describes how things happen
or can be performed. Quantum physics notwithstanding (see my posting
on Astronauts and Quantum Theory)
we can apply patterns that we see in unrelated fields to another. The
concept and operation of a parking lot applies to the design and
architecture of shopping malls, but if you are modeling intelligent
thought, you recognize that the human brain manages a parking lot of
ideas that we park, or temporarily shelve while we are dealing with
other problems. So a smart engineer would seek clever parking lot
solutions from architects to assist in modeling the human brain.
The
pattern can be from history. After the oil shock triggered the global
economic collapse, government leaders across the globe sought to avoid
repeating the pattern that we know as the Great Depression. Sometimes
history displays the underlying scientific pattern as when you build a
sandcastle on the beach. From previous experience, you know that the
next storm or high tide is going to erase your Frank Lloyd Wright aspirations. Although there is a truism to not build a house upon sand, the larger pattern is the Second Law of Thermodynamics - that things wear down and mix together.
Apple iPhone Dominates Mobile Web Usage
tells that Apple is cleaning up in the mobile phone market. An amazing
43% of all ad requests from mobile phones comes from iPhones. But we
have been here before. Remember the Motorola Razr? The Magic Profits of the iPhone
reminds us that the Razr sold 110 million units and was named the 12th
greatest gadget in 50 years by PC World. Do you remember the catch
phrase, "Hello, Moto?"
Microsoft Q4 Results Show Competitive Pressure
tells that net income is down 29% since last year. The loss is more
than from declining PC sales. The times are changing, and it is
difficult to be number one in a market and make all the right decisions
to stay there. Microsoft's competition (and you can include Google) is
not Linux, or Apple, but the thousands of small startups who are
betting the farm on the next new technology. Most of them have clever
and innovative personnel and given the right moment, could be stellar
companies. Yet only a couple will survive the third year. It is very
difficult for a large company to defend against such a broad base of
competitors, most of which have nothing to lose. The pattern of Rome
versus the barbarians might be applicable.
I believe Cisco has the right idea - they seem to grow through acquisition instead of attempting to invent the next technology themselves. See Cisco taps chief strategy officer.
So
what is the pattern for business dominance? A simple one is that there
is always a next champion. The more enlightening one is that no single
individual or company has the best ideas or products. (Granted, the
converse may be true.) As a consumer, be careful with brand loyalty.
As an engineer or businessman, think diversity, and seek to learn from
patterns.
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