Growls from the Russian Bear

Antarctica is protected by a treaty that declares the continent a scientific refuge.  The Arctic, however, has no such treaty.  Russia plants flag under North Pole reminds us that Russia planted a titanium metal flag underneath the North Pole in mid-2007.  Russian diplomats described it as heroic effort despite the fact that the United States first sailed underneath the North Pole with the Nautilus on August 3, 1958. 

The United States, Canada, Norway, Iceland, and Russia all have claims to waters in the Arctic Sea.  Massive reserves at stake in Arctic oil claim says that there are potentially 400 billion barrels of oil underneath the Arctic ocean.  The U.S. Geologic Survey believes the Arctic reserves represent 1/4 of the world's undiscovered oil and gas reserves.  The world consumes roughly 80 million barrels of oil a day, so the Arctic reserves represent a lengthy extension of the petroleum economy.

Ready for a fight: Russia's new security policy tells that the Kremlin anticipates war over future petroleum reserves.  The strategy paper released on Wednesday articulates a policy that Russia is willing to use its military to protect ownership of petroleum resources.  The China View tells that the proposed United States' missile defense systems in Europe threaten Russia's ability to execute this strategy.  It also explains that Russia's economic model will continue to rely upon natural resources exports.  This agrees with a scenario in 2025 Global Trends (published by the National Intelligence Council) in which Russia becomes a nationalistic, authoritarian petro-state.

Drill, Ivan, Drill tells that Russia is constructing a prototype floating nuclear power station.  This would allow giant floating oil platforms to be completely self-sustained.  Also - under proposed global regulations, those same nuclear power plants might qualify as carbon offsets for the oil being pumped from the Arctic floor.

Mmm.  If all of this sounds plausible, check out my new novel, Butterflies Escape.  There is a surprising conclusion to this scenario ...