Zark's

Leaning Against a Tilted Earth

This week's EE Times has troubled me. As an example, "Intel alone probably employs more 64-bit processor engineers in one city in India than are working across the whole of Europe on the technology."  Another example, “BMW is developing 10 concept cars in Chennai [India], because it can produce 10 concept cars every two years there, compared with one concept car every four years out of Munich.”

Europe and the U.S. are approximately equivalent in cost of living.  An engineer living in the U.S. or Europe pays more in taxes than two or three engineering salaries in India.  In the U.S., medical insurance costs are equivalent to four Indian engineering salaries.  It isn't that the western engineers and scientists have the corresponding increase in disposable income - it is that the western countries have that much higher cost of living.

Nokia closing German plant, slashing up to 2,300 jobs explains the European cell phone manufacturer was relocating manufacturing from Germany to Romania, where the cell phones could be manufactured at 10% of the cost in Germany.  In the U.S., headlines such as Dell to close Austin Computer Factory, lay off thousands shows the phenomenon affects all western countries. 

There are no easy answers.  Is America falling off the flat earth? is a free book that can be downloaded from the National Academy of Sciences.  Authored by Norman Augustine, former CEO of Lockheed Martin, it offers both observations and counsel.  With regard to the wage disparity mentioned above, he says, "[it] appears highly likely that the United States will suffer a substantial wage disadvantage for many years to come and that some means will have to be found to offset that fundamental tilt of the flat earth away from America."

He uses the story of Russia leading the space race in 1957 with Sputnik as an example of where America once lagged and then mobilized to the challenge.  His basic prescription for our illness is education.  (See the book for the real prescription which also includes some regulatory and policy changes as well.)  We have to lead - not build isolationist walls.  I would assert that we also need some national policies to protect American workers from exploitation by multinational corporations. 

Can the Problem Be Solved?

You might not realize it, but there are lots of unsolved math problems.  I know - some of you are thinking about your checking account, but for me, that is usually fictional rather than mathematical.  Unsolved Problems on Mathworld include the Goldbach Conjecture from 1742 which asks whether every number greater than 2 is the sum of three primes.  (He considered 1 to be prime, which is no longer the convention.)  This is one of the oldest unsolved mathematics problems. 

My favorite is the NP =? P which basically asks whether the traveling salesman problem can be solved.  The traveling salesman is given a number of cities and traveling costs - what is the optimum route to make all of his stops?  The N in NP=? P is an abbreviation for non-deterministic.  The P is for polynomial time.  An NP-hard problem is essentially a problem that cannot be solved in continuous time.  About the best you can do is make smart guesses and choose the solution that gives the best answers.  There are many problems in engineering and science that are in the same class of problems as the traveling salesman problem.  A solution that works for one should work for all, so the solution would be a historical achievement.  Mathematicians are split 50-50 on whether a solution exists. 

If you can solve either of these two problems, a prize awaits you.  The Clay Mathematics Institute has a $7M prize fund for unsolved mathematics problems, with $1M for each of these. 

For those without mathematics finesse, there are other ways to solve problems.  The Gordian Knot was the legendary knot of cornel.  It was prophesied that the first to untie the knot would be the next king of Asia.  At the ancient city of Gordian, Alexander the Great attempted to untie the knot.  According to legend, when he could not untie the knot, he cut it with his sword. 

Another Martian Chronicle

Another of my favorite Martian Chronicles is the Silent Towns.  Almost all of the colonists have returned to earth, but a remaining miner attempts to find someone still left on Mars.  He starts calling places likely to attract a woman, and finds perhaps the last remaining woman on Mars at a beauty salon.  They meet, and he decides to flee.  Over the next desolate years, he will occasionally hear a phone ringing wherever he is, but he never answers it.

The weather forecast for Mars today was clear skies and a high of -38 degrees F.  The Phoenix spacecraft was flexing its muscle, the robotic arm that will soon be digging into the Martian soil.  Most of the photographs so far have been black and white as the lander was calibrating its camera with color disks mounted on its landing pads.  The photographs do not look that alien - they could have been taken at an earth desert or steppe region devoid of vegetation.  The really cool picture though, is shown in Stunning new images of Phoenix Mars lander released.  The picture was taken from the orbiting Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter as the Phoenix parachuted down to the earth's surface.  The photograph shows the deployed parachute with the Mars Lander underneath just before Mars touchdown. 

The question on everyone's lips is - "Is there life on Mars?"  I don't know, but as noted in Estimation and assessment of Mars contamination, there have been several earth-originated spacecraft land upon the Mars surface.  We don't know what we could have already done to the Mars ecological system, if it has one.  New measures needed to keep NASA spacecraft from contaminating Mars discusses the techniques used by NASA and suggests they only eliminate a fraction of the microorganisms. 

In his autobiography, Flight, which I reread at least once a year, Chris Kraft discusses the quarantine chamber that housed the astronauts when they returned from the moon.  He claims it was a foolish endeavor and although he does not mention it, any microbes could have been released into the earth's atmosphere when the hatch doors were opened.  There was no particular reason the microbes should have stayed with the astronauts. 

Since 1970, we have learned much about non-indigenous invasive species such as the walking catfish and fire ant.  In risk management, we analyze the probability and cost of the event.  I'm not suggesting Andromeda Strain (I prefer the original film) is likely, but it could be costly. 

NASA's Martian Chronicle of Success

Most have read Ray Bradbury's Martian Chronicles; a collection of short stories about Martian colonists. My favorite is, "There Will Come Soft Rains", which is about a robotic household that endlessly prepares for the return of colonists that never return.  Perhaps it was because of Bradbury's imagination, that the Boomers and X-Gens have been fascinated with Mars since they were teenagers. 

The Mars Phoenix Lander touched down on Sunday in -58 degree F temperatures on the Mars north pole.  (It was 102 degrees F when I landed in Phoenix lately, so I don't understand the name of the lander.)  I am amazed that it landed in that cold environment and began operating flawlessly.  There are so, so, many things that could go wrong, that this was like winning a Las Vegas or Monte Carlo jackpot.  As Phoenix Lander returns promising images describes, NASA scientists were superb in planning the mission's landing - parachute drag in an alien atmosphere?  And have you even tried opening a car door at -58 degrees F?

Even aside from the rocket science of launching the space vehicle and landing safely, the spacecraft is equipped with cameras, robotic arms, chemistry lab, and microscopes.  I've been designing products for a long time, and I'm envious of this team's success.  Mars probe is an icebreaker explains that the lander has about 90 days of expected life before the -200 degree F Martian winter will freeze the spacecraft without sunlight to recharge its batteries. 

The NASA Phoenix Mars Lander website has the latest pictures and additional information about the spacecraft.  This is an international success with assistance from several countries, as London's scientist's tears of joy at Mars probe safe landing describes. 

NASA - Jolly Good Show!

 

Depleting Fossil Water

Fossil water is considered a non-renewable resource.  The High Plains aquifer in South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas provides water for roughly 30% of the country's irrigated land.  This particular aquifer is mainly water from the last ice age and although it is recharged slowly from the surface, some estimates are it will be depleted in 25 years. 

The Nubian aquifer in the Sahara Desert is also a reservoir from the last ice age with more than 1300 wells in Libya's Great Manmade River project.   Although it is being proclaimed the 8th wonder of the world, I calculate that it is being emptied by 1.7 billion gallons a day. 

Where am I going with this?  Forget Saudi Peak Oil - Worry About Peak Grain explains that grain production in Saudi is already down 40% and is rapidly declining.  After the Arab oil embargo, the kingdom decided that it needed to foster agriculture in case other countries used food deliveries in retaliation against it.  However, to produce this grain in the desert, the country has depleted a fossil water aquifer.  This has some worldwide political and economic consequences, with oil-rich Saudi Arabia investing in Thailand rice farms.

Is it time to talk about peak water explores whether water is the next natural resource to be in short supply.  Although desalination is an option for coastal communities, it requires large amounts of energy.  Already California uses 6.5% of its energy to pump water. 

Brown Coal and CO2 Production

Lignite is the lowest grade of coal.  This brown-colored coal has such low energy density and moisture content that it is generally too inefficient to transport.  An additional characteristic is that it produces a pound of CO2 for every pound of lignite burned.  Power plants are built next to a lignite mine, as with the Frimmersdorf Power Station in Grevenbroich, Germany.  According to a list of dirty power stations, Frimmersdorf is third largest producer of CO2 per energy unit.  The worst - the Hazelwood plant in Australia. 

Europe, and especially Germany, are banking on coal, tells that a new plant in Grevenbroich in Germany's Rhine Valley will be the world's largest.  Currently three plants belching more than 64 million tons of CO2 a year take the output of a 31 square mile open-pit mine.  The new power plant will require expansion of the mine, digging up the nearby city of Pesch.  This new plant will guarantee that Grevenbroich remains the carbon emissions epicenter in Europe.

There is a contradiction between Europe's carbon emissions standards and their plans for 40 new coal-powered plants similar to Grevenbroich.  There is a provision in the Kyoto Protocol on climate change that allows companies to take credits on carbon emissions for investing in developing countries.  Germany, Italy, and Spain prefer burning coal to nuclear power generation.  Germany's position in particular, is difficult to understand - their engineering and technical expertise is second to none.  Atomic Phobia explains it is political and psychological, with German psychologists calling it "environmental angst" and "ecochondria" .  (I know, I still don't understand.)

Around the world, As oil prices rise, nations revive coal mining explains abandoned coal mines are being reopened in even Bibai, Japan.  Coal represents the largest fossil fuel reserves in Japan, and like economies everywhere, Japan is trying to better manage the reliability and cost of its energy supplies.  Curiously the article notes that one of the problems facing coal mining in Japan is there are no longer any coal mining geologists left. 

I dunno... We abandoned coal two decades ago for what seemed to be very good reasons.  We are a civilization in need of an energy solution.

Winners and Losers

Let's face it - losing is considered unAmerican.  The dilemma though (and becoming even more so with overpopulation) is that much of life is zero-sum, which basically says most of the time, someone has to lose in order for someone else to move ahead.  Toshiba lost terribly to Sony in the high definition DVD format competition.  In the battle for Yahoo, either Carl Ichan or Jerry Yang is going to lose.  In your business organization, unless you are lead dog, the only way for you to advance above a good colleague is for her to lose.  I've written before that I believe some sports such as football reflect life on a compressed time scale, and we are all acquainted with the hurt that accompanies a sports loss.

So why do we have a pyschological stigma of losing?  If we stop worrying about losing, we'll win explores some of the consequences of zero-sum.  He writes that national defense is based upon the outcome of winners and losers rather than peace and that political parties lead to discord rather than harmony.  The author suggests that we need to seek solutions where everyone wins.  Hmm.  I'm not sure that is a better outcome, because it will just make everyone average, (remember NFL parity?) following the Second Law of Thermodynamics.  Do we give everyone a trophy for just wearing their uniform?

The Art of Losing Well begins by discussing Hillary Clinton's refusal to cede the nomination to Barack Obama.  Is it because she considers losing is a personal failure?  Well isn't it?  When you step into the boxing rink (whether actual or figurative) and it is just you or the other person, are you going to blame your mother for a loss?  In contrast, if you are dealt a hand of 2's and 3's in a poker game, it will require divine intervention for you to win.  Similarly if you are not blessed with an athletic body from birth, it is going to be an unlikely climb to stardom in the NFL or NBA.

I think the problem is psychologically between the two extremes - when the loss was ours and when it was outside our sphere of influence.  In a scene of The Natural, a psychologist in a team meeting drones, "Losing is a disease."  Again, that is an over-simplification.  We can have destructive execution that condemns us to failure, but like being dealt successive losing poker hands, it can be outside our sphere of influence.  In his text, Superclass, David Rothkopf claims there are 6000 key people in all of humanity.  Many of them, he writes, acknowledge they achieved that status by luck.

The Apostle Paul did not write that it is unhealthy to have races where someone wins and loses.  He wrote, "I press toward the goal for the prize ..."  He instead tells us to seek excellence.  Perhaps the real lesson for civilization as we become even more competitive with overpopulation is that we need both good winners and losers.  So buck up and strive for excellence when it is under your control.

 

Book Review of Stephen Lawhead's Patrick

The past week I read Stephen R. Lawhead's Patrick, on my Kindle.  The Kindle has its advantages and disadvantages.  I love having access to hundreds of books and songs all in a single device that I carry with me.  Also I usually read the thick paperback books which can be difficult to keep open in all reading positions.  The slender and lightweight Kindle makes it easy.  On the downside, it is difficult to flip through pages rapidly, scanning for something you want to reread.  Kindle does not do that well.  Another is that it is electronic, which means that when you are on a an active taxiway for an hour as I was on a flight from Las Vegas last night, you cannot be reading while the less-techy passengers are reading their paperbacks.  (Yes, an hour on the taxiway due to weather.)

The story is loosely based upon Ireland's Saint Patrick, but should be considered a historical novel rather than a biographical sketch.  Lawhead presents the character development of Patrick, which instead of being the historical St. Patrick, could be ourselves.  Patrick financially has cycles of prosperity and famine.  Not quite out of phase with his financial circumstances is his spiritual character.  When enslaved as a shepherd, his personal character is far from spiritual or even altruisic.  He reacts like a rodent caught in a trap, willing to sacrifice his integrity, honor, and his friends, to simply escape.  Doesn't that sound like us sometimes?

But it is the hard times that change his character.  Although he less than honorably climbs from despairing circumstances, each time his character becomes more spiritually refined.  By the end of the story, Patrick has transformed into one worthy to lead, much different from his original birthright inheritance. 

The story itself begins in Britain when raiders capture a wealthy and self-absorbed young Patrick and sell him as a slave to to an Irish king.  He continually schemes and is subsequently punished for his escape attempts.  Through God's blessing, he is befriended by a Druid and his sister who heal him after he was left beaten to die for an escape attempt.  This begins his spriritual journey and is far from a straight path as his scheming eventually takes him back to Britain where he discovers his family and estate are no more.  Cycles of prosperity and hurt follow and he ends up in Rome during a plague epidemic.  Finally his character loses its self-occupation and he returns to Ireland to make amends and become the leader he has been forged to become.

My favorite remains Byzantium, another historical period novel by Lawhead, but this is an excellent read.  Some sections, especially the battle scenes when Patrick is a Roman mercenary become tedious, but they establish the integrity of the story's timeline and plausibility.  I do like the book - at the end of the day, the most important thing about a person is their character.  This novel shows how that character for one person develops.

Extinct DNA Comes to Life and Time Runs Backward

Australian, US Scientists Bring Extinct Gene Back From Dead describes how DNA from the Tasmanian Tiger, extinct for 70 years has been revived in a mouse embryo.  We are not quite at Jurassic Park levels of technology, because the embryo only developed some bone and cartilage.  Tiger may find a new life through mouse tells us that the last surviving Tasmanian Tiger died in 1936 at a Tasmanian zoo.  Genes from extinct Tasmanian Tiger function in a mouse provides additional explanation of the procedure.  The researchers were able to isolate a specific gene from preserved tissues of the Tiger in alcohol.  The gene from the Thyalicine was identified specifically in the mouse embryo from the extinct tiger.  For those of you that remember the Warner Brother cartoons, the closest living relative to the tiger is the Tasmanian Devil. Another science story in the news is Does time run backward in other universes?  Cosmologists have become troubled that the universe seems to have a point in time when it suddenly existed. where previously there was nothing.  To accommodate their perplexion, they have proposed a theory in which time runs backward in some universes to avoid this singularity. I'm not buying into this theory.  There is another explanation.

Cranking Up the Body's Immune System

Recruiting a dangerous foe to fight cancer and HIV describes how injecting a dangerous bacterium known as Listeria into the body can elevate the body's autoimmune system.  Because Listeria is so dangerous and results in 500 deaths a year in the U.S., a biotech named Advaxis is genetically modifying the bacterium.  Lovaxin C has been tested for advanced cervical cancer in women who had poor response to other cancer treatments.  The bacterium has the ability to enhance the overall immune system as well as invade tumors. 

Executive Informational Overview on Advaxis tells us that the technology is under license from the University of Pennyslvania where it has been developed by Dr. Yvonne Patterson, the scientific founder of the company.  One interesting aspect of laboratory testing with mice shows that it seems to provide long-term immunity; preventing new tumors from growing. 

Because of fears that the bacterium could reproduce within the body, some other biotechs such as Anza Therapeutics are developing vaccines where the bacterium is dead, but still invokes the desired immune system response. 

Listeria is a Gram positive bacterium named for Joseph Lister.  It is a rod-shaped cell wiith flagella for movement.  Listeriosis, caused by the bacterium has a 25% fatality rate.