Zark's

Converting Carbon Dioxide Into Something Else

The solution seems obvious, doesn't it?  Since we have too much carbon dioxide, we just need to plant more trees. We learned that in elementary school science.  The problem is, biological mechanisms are too slow.  Think about it - half the planet is already covered with plants, and our ecosystem cannot keep up with the greenhouse gases being generated by mankind.  Of course, we are doing exactly what we shouldn't do - cutting down trees and simultaneously increasing the human population.

In Rethinking Artificial Trees, I posted - The Colorado Trees website provides some interesting statistics about natural trees.   An average tree absorbs about 48 pounds of CO2 a year.  It takes about one acre of tree coverage to compensate for driving an automobile about 8000 miles.  As much as I like photosynthesis, it does not seem scalable for 6.8 billion people on the planet.

Yet I encourage researchers to keep trying.  Asking 'What would nature do?' leads to a way to break down a greenhouse gas explains a University of Michigan biochemist has mimicked a form of photosynthesis.  Steve Ragsdale's discovery is that an enzyme-coated titanium oxide with a photosensitizer bonded to the titanium can convert carbon dioxide into carbon monoxide. 

His team hypothesized this is something that nature might accomplish, although none knows of an organism that actually converts CO2 into CO.  Of course, the surface of the earth would not be a healthy place with too much carbon monoxide, since it is highly toxic to animals and humans.  But it demonstrates scientists attempting to learn from the design patterns of nature. 

Sheesh.  I am more and more convinced we simply must reduce greenhouse emissions through alternative energy sources. 

The Miracle Drug from Easter Island

Longevity Drugs May be Coming explains rapamycin has been discovered to extend the lifetimes of old laboratory mice by almost 30 percent.  Wiki tells that rapamycin, also known as sirolimus, was first discovered in soil samples from Easter Island.  (Yes, that island that has the mysterious-looking stone heads.)

Originally the drug was intended for anti-fungal purposes.  It soon showed much more promise for suppressing the autoimmune system for organ transplants.  Recently rapamycin has shown promise in treating pancreatic cancer.  Ironically though, because the drug has such powerful immunosuppressive properties, patients taking the drug could suffer from a 10-100 probability increase of developing cancer.

Yet another application has been discovered - Bacterial Product Isolated in Soil from Easter Island Rescues Learning, Memory in Alzheimer's Mouse Model.  The Science Daily article tells that mice with Alzheimer's - like symptoms are improved with rapamycin.  Examination shows the drug reduces the lesions in their brains, recently correlated with Alzheimer's symptoms in humans.

Wiki tells that the patent has expired, with a generic produced in India available.  Daily treatment costs are $37 for rapamycin, and $20 for the generic.  The medical effects can be extended by drinking grapefruit juice with a smaller dosage.

Whispers of Peak Oil (Again)

The EIA's latest Short Term Energy Outlook - "China's apparent liquid fuels consumption in December increased by 0.9 million barrels per day (bbl/d), or 12 percent, above year-earlier levels, as China's economic stimulus package continued to help push up both oil usage and economic growth."  Remember, we are only exiting (or still in) the great recession. 

The chart below is complex - the dark blue line graph at the top shows total consumption.  Note that world petroleum consumption is about to exceed the consumption levels of 2007-2008, when oil soared above $120 a barrel.  The oil drums show the growth of U.S., China, and other consumption from the previous year.

 

Saudi Arabia Says Peak Demand for Oil is an 'Alarm' tells that the oil-rich kingdom is concerned about peak oil.  In order to boost production, it will begin injection carbon dioxide into the world's largest oilfield within two years.  The nation believes world oil production will peak at 100 to 105 million barrels of oil.  Crude oil for March delivery is trading at $74 a barrel.

Virgin's Richard Branson Takes on Peak Oil predicts 2015 as the time when all the pumps in the world will never pump as much again.

Mmm.  I think peak oil will occur prior to 2015 because there is no incentive for oil producers to maximize production.  It is in their economic and strategic interest to limit production and maximize prices.  The 2008 oil shock prices educated the producers -there are no scalable alternatives to petroleum energy.

Convincing Adult Stem Cells to Stay Juvenile

Stem Cell Basics explains they have the potential to become one of many different types of cells in the human body. When the stem cell divides, it could become a retina cell, muscle cell, etc., or even another stem cell.  A stem cell is unspecialized and is capable of renewing itself.  Gut and bone marrow stem cells regularly replace older tissue.  But it happens very infrequently and under special circumstances in other organs such as the pancreas and heart.

Much of the stem cell debate concerns the inner cells of the blastocyst, (4-5 day old embryo) the embryonic cells that basically duplicate a human being.  These cells obviously have the ability to create any type of human tissue or organ, because that's what they do.  The ethical debate results from the destruction of a growing embryo that could become a complete human.  

But stem cells have the promise of miracle cures.  Stem Cells Approved to Treat 'Orphan' Disease explains the FDA has approved stem cell treatment for a rare blindness syndrome.  The ScienceFair article explains that less than 30,000 globally are afflicted with Stargardt's Macular Dystrophy, and the return on investment is insufficient to attract big Pharma to develop products. 

In the last two or three years, induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) have been created from adult cells, essentially switching them back to a juvenile state.  While side-stepping the ethics of destroying a blastocyst, they also avoid the problems of tissue rejection.  Although the inner cells of the blastocyst are unspecialized, they sometimes have markers that are recognized as foreign bodies by the recipient's autoimmune system.  Anti-rejection drugs are then required throughout the patient's lifetime.

Still No Truce in the Stem Cell Wars explains that IPSCs are created by inserting four genes into the adult cell through a retrovirus.  Although easily produced, their advocates have been dismayed because they age prematurely.  For unknown reasons, the iPSCs stop dividing after only a few generations and they die prematurely.

Breakthrough Reveals Blood Vessel Cells Are Key to Growing Unlimited Amounts of Adult Stem Cells tells that endothelial cells of the vascular system proliferate stem cells.  Researchers inserted a gene from andenoviruses into the endothelial cells have been able to maintain stem cell cultures for a year instead of the 4-5 days with iPSCs.  Currently the technique is applicable to marrow and other blood-forming stem cells, but the Science Daily article indicates the concept can be applied to adult stem cells of other organs.  In the short term, it should bring immediate help for bone marrow transplantation.

Warming Sooner Than Later?

Barrow, Alaska, is the northern-most settlement of the U.S., reachable only by air or sea; there are no roads connecting it with the lower Alaskan road system.  (It is one of the locations in my novel, Butterflies Escape.)  Long-term trend in the record of snow melt date at the NOAA/ESRL Barrow Observatory is shown below.  The appears convincing - since 1940, the snow melt date has advanced by 10 days. 

Barrow, Alaska: Ground Zero for Climate Change explains, similar to the graphic above, winter temperatures keep getting warmer.  There is water where before there was only ice.  Inland lakes are melting and losing their ice and water, leaving a very arid territory.

More ominously, Methane Releases from Arctic Shelf May be Much Larger and Faster Than Anticipated tells that the permafrost underneath the Arctic Shelf has perforated and is leaking large volumes of methane into the atmosphere.  Scientists caution that methane is 25-30 times worse than carbon dioxide in the upper atmosphere.  Wiki explains that methane, CH4, can trap about 20 times the heat of carbon dioxide, CO2.

With some additional research, I discovered NOAA's annual greenhouse gas index, shown in the graphic below.

Methane emissions had leveled for almost a decade, but the recent data points suggest a sudden increase in methane. It is early, but we may have reached an inflection point. Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) Indicates Sharp Rise in Carbon Dioxide and Methane in 2007 tells that in 2007, methane increased by 27 million tons. 

Because of recent discovery of high methane concentrations emitting from the Arctic Shelf, scientists are concerned. There may soon be irrefutable evidence of climate change.

The Nuclear Industry is Changing

People no longer think of Homer Simpson when nuclear power is mentioned. Instead, Blue Ribbon Commission on America's Nuclear Future to Hold First Meeting signals that a nuclear renaissance is beginning.  In the 1967 film, The Graduate, Mr. Maguire has one word, "Plastics".  Today it would be "Nuclear".

Ironically some of the industry believers who weathered the chill of public opinion and interest for over two decades, may not benefit from the renaissance.  Areva's High-End Bet on Nuclear Power explains that the French company made strategic acquisitions during the downturn for a moment like this.  But Areva is experiencing headwinds from: a) Korea is producing inexpensive nuclear power solutions, b) China and India want to develop their own nuclear industry, and c) the Evolutionary Pressurized Reactor (EPR) is a black hole for profits.

The prototype EPR being built in Finland is three years behind schedule, $3B overrun, and a fixed price contract.  This new design offers some flexibility in fueling, but its primary emphasis is protection from an attack.  The pressure dome is designed to withstand a direct hit from a commercial airline.

UAE Deal, Outlook Boost South Korea Nuclear Power Stocks tells that the Korea Electric Power Corporation consortium outbid French, German, and U.S. nuclear suppliers in a $40B project to construct four reactors.  South Korea executives boasted they would win another five to six projects in the U.S. and China during 2010.  Nuclear Power in Korea explains bigger ambitions - by 2030, South Korea plans on exporting 80 nuclear power plants a year.

China National Nuclear Mulls IPO to Finance Expansion explains China wants a piece of the 200GW of nuclear power projects on the books.  Human resources critical to Indian nuclear plans tells that India plans to increase nuclear power production five-fold by 2020.  It isn't just human resources that are going to be in short supply - expect a shortage of uranium.

Curiously, Canada has some of the world's largest and richest uranium deposits, but Kazkhstan will produce more uranium this year.  Canada uranium move could draw big players explains that a limitation on foreign mine ownership has discouraged investment in Canadian uranium mines.  Echoing a recent policy move by Australia, which also had a foreign ownership limitation, Canada is proposing reducing ownership rules.  Australia has the world's largest uranium reserves, but not as rich deposits - some of Canada's are 20 percent.

Generating Petroleum From Gas

Wiki explains gas-to-liquids (GTL) is a refinery process that converts shorter gas molecules into the longer-chained hydrocarbons of gasoline and diesel fuel.  There are several processes to produce his synthetic petroleum such as Fischer-Tropsch and the Mobil process.

Pearl GTL describes the world's largest GTL plant, using the Shell Middle Distillate Synthesis (SMDS) process.  It will produce up to 140,000 barrels of liquid transportation fuel a day, in addition to 120,000 barrels of natural gas liquids and ethane.  The huge plant in Qatar began construction in June 2006 and will being deliveries at the end of this year.

Shell Aims for ‘New Nigeria’ as Qatari Plant Starts explains the plant cost three times its original estimate, all the way to $19B.  It is very energy intensive and expensive to convert gas into petroleum, but the current and projected reserves of natural gas, make this a capitalist's dream, and an environmentalist's nightmare.  Shell should make $6B a year from this facility.  

Chevron is building a smaller facility in Nigeria that will convert 320 million cubic feet of natural gas into 34,000 barrels of liquids a day, primarily diesel fuel. 

The Department of Energy's website describes the benefits of GTL.  The primary benefit is that maintains the world's transportation infrastructure which is heavily dependent upon liquid petroleum fuels.  (A secondary benefit is that the liquid transportation fuels are 'cleaner' and do not have nitrogen oxide and sulfur in their emissions.)  Considered an 'alternative' fuel by the U.S., it also has the benefit that the U.S. has large natural gas reserves, making GTL an important strategic energy diversification.

Mmm.  The World Resources Institute explains that 45 percent of the input natural gas energy content is used to perform the chemistry of GTL.  The complete lifecycle of GTL-created transportation fuel results in 25 percent greater greenhouse gas emissions than conventional petroleum.

Where is NASA Going?

Under Fire, Administrator Defends NASA's New Direction tells that Charles Bolden confronted not-so-friendly fire in front of Congress while defending the 2011 budget.  Sheesh.  How would you like his job?  Canceling the Lunar Mission and its associated spacecraft is probably not in his job description.  Nonetheless, he gamely defended the administration's decision to end the Constellation program and described the opportunities for private industry.

The New York Times article explains that Congress is skeptical, with Representative Wu questioning whether there was commercial opportunity in space; other than providing services and hardware to NASA.  Closing Lunar Program A Tough Mission for NASA tells that the government will pay an estimated $2.5B to close down the program that it has already spent $9B.  The program close-out will continue to Preliminary Design Review (PDR) status this year, a milestone the agency believes is necessary to capture the knowledge generated in the Constellation program. 

Mmm.  Can you imagine the enthusiasm for producing the PDR deliverables of a terminated program?  Sounds like wishful thinking, doesn't it?

NASA has posted Charles Bolden's statement to Congress.  The 2011 budget request is $19B, an increase of $267M from 2010.  ($1.9B is earmarked for Constellation closeout in 2011.)  He defends the administration's decisions by saying that NASA does not have sufficient technology for a manned mission to Mars.  The space agency must invest in science and engineering to produce the technology and infrastructure to take the U.S. to the next step in space exploration.  By turning over near-Earth to commercial industry, the resources of NASA can be better expended in revitalizing space technology.

I find the redirection disheartening.  Not particularly about Constellation, because there has been controversy about the new hardware's capability and progress.  But I am disappointed that NASA is not considered as Napoleon once viewed Ecole Polytechnique, "the goose that lays the golden eggs."  No doubt the agency needs an injection of hunger and innovation, but the U.S. could not have achieved the economic and technological success of the 60s and early 70s without NASA.

If you are interested, check out Engines of Our Ingenuity - The Polytechnic Legacy.

What Happens When Rats Feel Crowded?

Mmm.  As a college freshman, I had to read "The Rat Trap".  Sheesh.  What a depressing story...  A colleague asked the other day if our culture was experiencing more disorder than in the past.  I wonder if mankind is not experiencing the rat effect.

John B. Calhoun was the American ecologist and psychologist who observed behavioral changes with increased population density.  His study of population pressure began with the Rodent Ecology Project of Johns Hopkins University in 1947.  Wiki tells he was intrigued that the population of 10,000 square foot outdoor pen never had more than 200 rats, and stabilized at 150 rats.  He discovered that rats cannot live harmoniously in a group larger than 12, at which time psychological effects begin to tear the group apart.  (He noted the same was true for humans.)

The New York Times tells that one of his discoveries was universal autism.  This is when the members of a last generation of rodents in an increasingly crowded environment will not procreate.  Their social skills and interaction become so deteriorated that they stay alone and just groom themselves.  These are rats who lack for nothing, but because of their crowded conditions, they simply 'check out'. 

Escaping the Laboratory is an interesting review of Calhoun's life and studies.  Before the great 'check out' described above, their behaviors become more bizarre as the population increases, despite having sufficient food and water.  Aggressive packs develop, mothers abandon their babies, and (gulp) they even turn to cannibalism.  Further, the social changes are permanent.  

With such data, Calhoun began to assert there was an upper bound for the number of individuals before population pressure began to destroy a culture.  It might seem that Calhoun would have become very pessimistic about mankind's future.  However, the authors (Edmund Ramsden and Jon Adams) explain he viewed his experiments as a science lesson and guidance for how we should construct the cities of the future. 

Organ Transplants from India

Australians caught up in 'Dr. Horror' kidney racket tells that an Indian medic was peddling kidneys from poor laborers.  Perhaps 400-500 kidney transplants were performed by Amit Kumar and his collaborators.  Making the story worse, Kumar is not a physician - he learned how to transplant kidneys by 'associating' with surgeons.

Although the donor 'price' is about $1500 - $2500, many have claimed their organs were stolen after they were drugged.  Indian kidney recipients paid up to $45,000 for the transplants, and international customers from America and Australia paid much more.

Kidney transplant market thrives in Delhi tells there is an Indian law prohibiting the sale of organs.  The law is circumscribed by the donor signing a statement that the patient is a relative.  At most hospitals, there are 'middlemen' who learn of someone' need for an organ transplant.  They will arrange for a donor organ.  The kidney may sell for $4,500, but the recipient must be prepared to pay $250 a month for anti-rejection drugs for the rest of their life.  A donated organ can survive up to ten years within the patient.